Template
Virginia by county: Census 2020–2024
Every adult in Virginia, as the Census counts them, county by county and grouped by metro area. Each person is a real combination of traits from the Census's anonymised person records, weighted so every county matches its published tables, with party lean and 2024 turnout modelled and labelled so.
133 places, by metro area / county · Team plan
Every plan can look; creating a population from a state by county or by município needs Team.
What each person has
- Age
- 18-2412%
- 25-3417%
- 35-4417%
- 45-5416%
- 55-6416%
- 65-7413%
- and 1 more
- Sex
- Man49%
- Woman51%
- Race and ethnicity
- White61%
- Black18%
- Hispanic10%
- Asian7%
- Other or more than one race4%
- Education
- No high school diploma9%
- High school diploma or GED25%
- Some college or associate's degree27%
- Bachelor's degree22%
- Graduate degree16%
- Household income
- Under $25,0008%
- $25,000–49,99911%
- $50,000–74,99913%
- $75,000–99,99912%
- $100,000–149,99919%
- $150,000 or more34%
- and 1 more
- Work
- Working63%
- Unemployed, looking for work3%
- Not in the labor force35%
- Home
- Lives in an owned home68%
- Lives in a rented home29%
- Lives in group quarters3%
- Marital status
- Married52%
- Widowed6%
- Divorced11%
- Separated2%
- Never married30%
- Children at home
- No children at home67%
- Children at home33%
- Veteran
- Not a veteran91%
- Veteran9%
- Born
- Born in the US84%
- Born abroad16%
- Health coverage
- Has health coverage92%
- No health coverage8%
- Disability
- No disability85%
- Has a disability15%
- Citizenship
- US citizen94%
- Not a US citizen6%
- Party lean (modelled)
- Democratic-leaning45%
- Republican-leaning39%
- Independent or no lean16%
- Voted in 2024 (modelled)
- Voted66%
- Did not vote28%
- Not eligible (not a citizen)6%
County by county
Adults in each county: darker has more. Point at a county for its numbers.
1,962885,527adults, on a log scale
Error report
How close these people come to the published figures, and where they fall short.
6,814,337 adults · 342,009 Census records · 133 counties in 12 areas (metro areas and the rest of the state)
Built 2026-10-09 · records virginia-2024-v1
How close the people land on the Census
Each county's records are weighted until they match its American Community Survey tables. The figure is the worst county's largest gap on each table, in percentage points.
| Table | Worst county |
|---|---|
| Sex by age | 0.5 |
| Race and ethnicity | 0.5 |
| Education | 0.5 |
| Household income | 0.5 |
| Work | 0.2 |
| Owned or rented home | 0.3 |
| Citizenship | 0.0 |
A check left out of the fit: veterans
Veteran status was not used in weighting, so it shows how well the weighted people carry traits nobody fitted. Per county, the share of veterans among civilian adults lands a median 0.6 points from the Census's own figure; 95% of counties within 3.0, the worst 4.8.
What drawing a population adds
A population is a sample of these weighted people, so small counties vary from draw to draw. Largest gap per county between the people drawn and the county's records, counties with at least 30 people.
| Trait | 10,000 people | 100,000 people | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median | 95% of counties within | Median | 95% of counties within | |
| Race and ethnicity | 0.8 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Education | 3.9 | 9.6 | 1.0 | 3.6 |
| Household income | 2.0 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 1.8 |
Party lean and 2024 turnout (modelled)
No Census record says how anyone votes, so these two traits are modelled. Each person starts from what Cooperative Election Study 2024 respondents like them (race, age, education and sex, in the Census South) said and did, with turnout checked against the voter file. Each county is then calibrated so its people's turnout and Democratic-minus-Republican margin match its 2024 presidential result (MIT Election Lab). Those results count votes for president, so turnout runs a point or so under ballots cast.
| Check | Margin | Turnout |
|---|---|---|
| Each county against its 2024 result (calibrated) | median 0.0, worst 0.0 | median 0.0, worst 0.0 |
| Demographics alone, given only the statewide result | median 24.6, worst 55.7 | median 5.0, worst 14.0 |
| The same, with priors that never saw anyone from Virginia | median 24.5, worst 56.2 | median 5.0, worst 14.0 |
Leans against Virginia's own survey respondents
Nothing was fitted to these: the share of each lean among Virginia's adults, as modelled and as the CES's Virginia respondents gave it.
| Democratic | Republican | Neither | Turnout | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 39% | 16% | |
| CES Virginia (n=1,591) | 45% | 38% | 17% | |
| Priors that never saw anyone from Virginia, applied to its 1,571 citizen respondents | 39% | 44% | 17% | 56% |
| CES Virginia, citizens (n=1,571) | 44% | 39% | 17% | 64% |
The county totals are right by construction: that is what calibration does. The honest test is the people alone, in the table above: given only the statewide result, how far each county's people land from its margin. Counties that vote very differently from people like them elsewhere in the region land furthest; the map shows where.
Within a county, calibration moves everyone's lean by the same factor, so lean by race inside one county is the weakest part. In the smallest counties the Census's five-year estimates carry wide margins, and where more presidential votes were cast than the estimate of citizens, turnout is held at 98%.
Use these traits to include or compare groups. They are not anyone's stated party, and results are never polls of real people.
Every county (133)
| County | Area | Adults | Census gap | Veterans (Census / people) | Turnout 2024 | Margin: result / demographics alone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accomack | Small towns and rural Virginia | 26,506 | 0.3 | 9% / 10% | 70% | −13 / +1 |
| Albemarle | Charlottesville | 92,481 | 0.2 | 6% / 7% | 77% | +34 / +2 |
| Alleghany | Small towns and rural Virginia | 12,116 | 0.2 | 8% / 8% | 69% | −48 / −17 |
| Amelia | Richmond | 10,746 | 0.2 | 11% / 9% | 76% | −44 / −3 |
| Amherst | Lynchburg | 25,189 | 0.2 | 7% / 7% | 69% | −36 / −2 |
| Appomattox | Lynchburg | 12,949 | 0.2 | 10% / 8% | 75% | −51 / −5 |
| Arlington | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria | 193,653 | 0.2 | 6% / 7% | 76% | +59 / +13 |
| Augusta | Staunton-Stuarts Draft | 63,693 | 0.2 | 7% / 8% | 70% | −48 / −13 |
| Bath | Small towns and rural Virginia | 3,390 | 0.3 | 9% / 9% | 76% | −54 / −17 |
| Bedford | Lynchburg | 65,151 | 0.4 | 8% / 9% | 79% | −50 / −10 |
| Bland | Small towns and rural Virginia | 5,345 | 0.4 | 7% / 8% | 66% | −70 / −16 |
| Botetourt | Roanoke | 27,680 | 0.1 | 9% / 8% | 80% | −45 / −14 |
| Brunswick | Small towns and rural Virginia | 13,418 | 0.4 | 7% / 7% | 59% | +9 / +22 |
| Buchanan | Small towns and rural Virginia | 16,163 | 0.2 | 5% / 6% | 58% | −71 / −18 |
| Buckingham | Small towns and rural Virginia | 13,959 | 0.2 | 8% / 8% | 57% | −23 / +4 |
| Campbell | Lynchburg | 44,594 | 0.4 | 8% / 8% | 71% | −49 / −5 |
| Caroline | Small towns and rural Virginia | 24,823 | 0.4 | 13% / 12% | 73% | −9 / +5 |
| Carroll | Small towns and rural Virginia | 24,031 | 0.4 | 7% / 8% | 68% | −63 / −19 |
| Charles City | Richmond | 5,686 | 0.4 | 10% / 10% | 77% | +11 / +16 |
| Charlotte | Small towns and rural Virginia | 8,968 | 0.3 | 7% / 8% | 68% | −33 / +3 |
| Chesterfield | Richmond | 288,329 | 0.3 | 9% / 9% | 77% | +9 / +8 |
| Clarke | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria | 12,234 | 0.3 | 8% / 10% | 82% | −17 / −10 |
| Craig | Roanoke | 3,734 | 0.4 | 5% / 10% | 84% | −65 / −19 |
| Culpeper | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria | 40,712 | 0.4 | 9% / 9% | 75% | −25 / −2 |
| Cumberland | Small towns and rural Virginia | 7,899 | 0.2 | 9% / 9% | 70% | −22 / +6 |
| Dickenson | Small towns and rural Virginia | 11,106 | 0.4 | 6% / 7% | 63% | −62 / −20 |
| Dinwiddie | Richmond | 22,559 | 0.4 | 9% / 12% | 71% | −23 / +7 |
| Essex | Small towns and rural Virginia | 8,723 | 0.5 | 7% / 10% | 71% | −8 / +8 |
| Fairfax | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria | 885,527 | 0.2 | 8% / 8% | 76% | +35 / +9 |
| Fauquier | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria | 57,219 | 0.3 | 10% / 10% | 81% | −22 / −5 |
| Floyd | Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford | 12,684 | 0.4 | 8% / 7% | 78% | −37 / −15 |
| Fluvanna | Charlottesville | 22,634 | 0.3 | 10% / 8% | 75% | −6 / −3 |
| Franklin | Roanoke | 44,929 | 0.2 | 8% / 8% | 70% | −45 / −12 |
| Frederick | Winchester | 73,484 | 0.2 | 9% / 9% | 74% | −28 / −9 |
| Giles | Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford | 13,283 | 0.4 | 8% / 7% | 70% | −55 / −16 |
| Gloucester | Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk | 31,650 | 0.1 | 14% / 11% | 74% | −38 / −10 |
| Goochland | Richmond | 22,138 | 0.1 | 8% / 9% | 89% | −19 / −3 |
| Grayson | Small towns and rural Virginia | 12,807 | 0.2 | 7% / 7% | 64% | −62 / −16 |
| Greene | Charlottesville | 16,305 | 0.2 | 9% / 7% | 77% | −25 / −8 |
| Greensville | Small towns and rural Virginia | 9,555 | 0.2 | 7% / 10% | 46% | +9 / +24 |
| Halifax | Small towns and rural Virginia | 26,789 | 0.2 | 8% / 8% | 67% | −21 / +9 |
| Hanover | Richmond | 88,518 | 0.2 | 8% / 9% | 84% | −26 / −5 |
| Henrico | Richmond | 262,190 | 0.4 | 6% / 6% | 74% | +29 / +13 |
| Henry | Small towns and rural Virginia | 40,357 | 0.2 | 6% / 8% | 64% | −33 / −2 |
| Highland | Small towns and rural Virginia | 1,962 | 0.5 | 8% / 9% | 78% | −44 / −21 |
| Isle of Wight | Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk | 31,472 | 0.2 | 15% / 16% | 80% | −20 / +1 |
| James City | Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk | 65,180 | 0.2 | 13% / 16% | 81% | +6 / −2 |
| King and Queen | Richmond | 5,531 | 0.3 | 9% / 11% | 76% | −26 / −4 |
| King George | Small towns and rural Virginia | 21,087 | 0.1 | 13% / 14% | 74% | −25 / +2 |
| King William | Richmond | 14,369 | 0.2 | 11% / 9% | 81% | −41 / −2 |
| Lancaster | Small towns and rural Virginia | 9,348 | 0.5 | 11% / 12% | 79% | −7 / −1 |
| Lee | Small towns and rural Virginia | 17,904 | 0.4 | 8% / 7% | 57% | −72 / −16 |
| Loudoun | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria | 317,827 | 0.4 | 7% / 7% | 82% | +16 / +6 |
| Louisa | Small towns and rural Virginia | 31,987 | 0.1 | 10% / 8% | 77% | −26 / −6 |
| Lunenburg | Small towns and rural Virginia | 9,666 | 0.2 | 8% / 8% | 63% | −23 / +6 |
| Madison | Small towns and rural Virginia | 11,238 | 0.4 | 8% / 9% | 76% | −35 / −10 |
| Mathews | Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk | 7,311 | 0.3 | 9% / 12% | 81% | −39 / −13 |
| Mecklenburg | Small towns and rural Virginia | 24,913 | 0.3 | 8% / 9% | 67% | −21 / +6 |
| Middlesex | Small towns and rural Virginia | 9,107 | 0.2 | 11% / 12% | 76% | −27 / −7 |
| Montgomery | Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford | 83,986 | 0.4 | 4% / 4% | 60% | +3 / +2 |
| Nelson | Charlottesville | 12,168 | 0.4 | 9% / 9% | 79% | −8 / −8 |
| New Kent | Richmond | 20,218 | 0.1 | 10% / 9% | 85% | −32 / −2 |
| Northampton | Small towns and rural Virginia | 9,849 | 0.3 | 10% / 11% | 73% | +6 / +4 |
| Northumberland | Small towns and rural Virginia | 10,503 | 0.4 | 11% / 13% | 78% | −21 / −2 |
| Nottoway | Small towns and rural Virginia | 12,594 | 0.3 | 7% / 7% | 56% | −22 / +9 |
| Orange | Small towns and rural Virginia | 29,631 | 0.2 | 10% / 9% | 77% | −25 / −6 |
| Page | Small towns and rural Virginia | 19,066 | 0.5 | 8% / 9% | 70% | −54 / −18 |
| Patrick | Small towns and rural Virginia | 14,465 | 0.2 | 10% / 9% | 68% | −60 / −17 |
| Pittsylvania | Small towns and rural Virginia | 49,138 | 0.2 | 8% / 8% | 70% | −43 / −5 |
| Powhatan | Richmond | 25,785 | 0.3 | 9% / 9% | 82% | −44 / −9 |
| Prince Edward | Small towns and rural Virginia | 18,647 | 0.1 | 5% / 6% | 52% | −3 / +14 |
| Prince George | Richmond | 34,727 | 0.2 | 13% / 10% | 52% | −21 / +13 |
| Prince William | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria | 359,738 | 0.3 | 11% / 12% | 73% | +18 / +13 |
| Pulaski | Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford | 27,685 | 0.3 | 8% / 7% | 64% | −45 / −13 |
| Rappahannock | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria | 6,153 | 0.2 | 10% / 11% | 83% | −18 / −13 |
| Richmond | Small towns and rural Virginia | 7,482 | 0.1 | 5% / 9% | 57% | −30 / +2 |
| Roanoke | Roanoke | 77,995 | 0.2 | 8% / 8% | 75% | −22 / −9 |
| Rockbridge | Small towns and rural Virginia | 18,692 | 0.3 | 8% / 9% | 69% | −34 / −14 |
| Rockingham | Harrisonburg | 66,674 | 0.4 | 6% / 6% | 76% | −37 / −12 |
| Russell | Small towns and rural Virginia | 20,721 | 0.3 | 5% / 7% | 66% | −68 / −18 |
| Scott | Kingsport-Bristol | 17,645 | 0.5 | 6% / 7% | 63% | −70 / −17 |
| Shenandoah | Small towns and rural Virginia | 35,431 | 0.1 | 9% / 10% | 71% | −42 / −14 |
| Smyth | Small towns and rural Virginia | 23,755 | 0.2 | 7% / 7% | 61% | −60 / −17 |
| Southampton | Small towns and rural Virginia | 14,618 | 0.1 | 11% / 15% | 68% | −26 / +4 |
| Spotsylvania | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria | 110,859 | 0.1 | 13% / 13% | 75% | −9 / +3 |
| Stafford | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria | 120,703 | 0.3 | 17% / 17% | 74% | +1 / +9 |
| Surry | Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk | 5,434 | 0.3 | 16% / 14% | 82% | −1 / +13 |
| Sussex | Richmond | 9,071 | 0.3 | 10% / 11% | 54% | +4 / +24 |
| Tazewell | Small towns and rural Virginia | 31,709 | 0.2 | 7% / 7% | 63% | −69 / −16 |
| Warren | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria | 32,561 | 0.2 | 9% / 10% | 72% | −38 / −10 |
| Washington | Kingsport-Bristol | 44,515 | 0.5 | 8% / 8% | 67% | −53 / −15 |
| Westmoreland | Small towns and rural Virginia | 15,465 | 0.2 | 10% / 10% | 71% | −14 / −1 |
| Wise | Small towns and rural Virginia | 28,682 | 0.3 | 7% / 6% | 59% | −63 / −13 |
| Wythe | Small towns and rural Virginia | 22,725 | 0.3 | 7% / 7% | 69% | −60 / −15 |
| York | Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk | 54,638 | 0.2 | 18% / 14% | 74% | −6 / +3 |
| Alexandria city | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria | 128,503 | 0.2 | 8% / 8% | 72% | +58 / +15 |
| Bristol city | Kingsport-Bristol | 13,544 | 0.4 | 7% / 7% | 56% | −40 / −11 |
| Buena Vista city | Small towns and rural Virginia | 5,141 | 0.2 | 6% / 7% | 56% | −44 / −9 |
| Charlottesville city | Charlottesville | 37,957 | 0.3 | 3% / 5% | 66% | +69 / +13 |
| Chesapeake city | Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk | 191,558 | 0.3 | 16% / 16% | 68% | +4 / +12 |
| Colonial Heights city | Richmond | 13,844 | 0.4 | 14% / 11% | 66% | −32 / −0 |
| Covington city | Small towns and rural Virginia | 4,371 | 0.4 | 6% / 6% | 58% | −33 / −9 |
| Danville city | Small towns and rural Virginia | 32,688 | 0.3 | 9% / 7% | 56% | +21 / +22 |
| Emporia city | Small towns and rural Virginia | 4,014 | 0.2 | 8% / 9% | 56% | +31 / +38 |
| Fairfax city | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria | 18,816 | 0.2 | 7% / 8% | 85% | +33 / +6 |
| Falls Church city | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria | 11,186 | 0.2 | 6% / 7% | 86% | +62 / +7 |
| Franklin city | Small towns and rural Virginia | 6,019 | 0.4 | 12% / 12% | 65% | +23 / +24 |
| Fredericksburg city | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria | 22,754 | 0.1 | 12% / 13% | 64% | +32 / +12 |
| Galax city | Small towns and rural Virginia | 5,057 | 0.2 | 9% / 7% | 56% | −44 / −13 |
| Hampton city | Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk | 107,946 | 0.2 | 17% / 17% | 59% | +40 / +27 |
| Harrisonburg city | Harrisonburg | 42,503 | 0.3 | 3% / 3% | 46% | +25 / +9 |
| Hopewell city | Richmond | 17,129 | 0.4 | 10% / 10% | 54% | +14 / +18 |
| Lexington city | Small towns and rural Virginia | 6,977 | 0.5 | 3% / 4% | 43% | +27 / +8 |
| Lynchburg city | Lynchburg | 64,109 | 0.2 | 6% / 6% | 59% | −8 / +14 |
| Manassas city | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria | 31,419 | 0.2 | 7% / 8% | 64% | +15 / +8 |
| Manassas Park city | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria | 12,918 | 0.4 | 10% / 7% | 57% | +20 / +14 |
| Martinsville city | Small towns and rural Virginia | 9,998 | 0.4 | 7% / 7% | 59% | +23 / +19 |
| Newport News city | Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk | 141,434 | 0.2 | 13% / 13% | 56% | +29 / +21 |
| Norfolk city | Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk | 186,060 | 0.2 | 14% / 14% | 48% | +42 / +22 |
| Norton city | Small towns and rural Virginia | 2,855 | 0.3 | 6% / 6% | 58% | −44 / −13 |
| Petersburg city | Richmond | 25,535 | 0.5 | 10% / 10% | 53% | +73 / +48 |
| Poquoson city | Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk | 9,733 | 0.3 | 15% / 14% | 84% | −46 / −10 |
| Portsmouth city | Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk | 74,798 | 0.2 | 13% / 12% | 56% | +39 / +27 |
| Radford city | Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford | 14,640 | 0.4 | 3% / 3% | 45% | +1 / +10 |
| Richmond city | Richmond | 189,163 | 0.2 | 5% / 5% | 61% | +66 / +25 |
| Roanoke city | Roanoke | 76,101 | 0.2 | 7% / 7% | 59% | +24 / +7 |
| Salem city | Roanoke | 20,629 | 0.3 | 7% / 7% | 66% | −19 / −6 |
| Staunton city | Staunton-Stuarts Draft | 20,931 | 0.3 | 8% / 7% | 66% | +13 / −3 |
| Suffolk city | Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk | 75,486 | 0.3 | 15% / 15% | 72% | +16 / +19 |
| Virginia Beach city | Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk | 356,490 | 0.2 | 16% / 15% | 66% | +3 / +6 |
| Waynesboro city | Staunton-Stuarts Draft | 17,734 | 0.2 | 7% / 6% | 66% | −6 / −5 |
| Williamsburg city | Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk | 14,134 | 0.2 | 6% / 9% | 58% | +45 / +13 |
| Winchester city | Winchester | 21,627 | 0.2 | 5% / 8% | 60% | +10 / −3 |
Sources
- Records
- ACS PUMS 2020–2024 5-year, Virginia, adults 18+
- Tables
- ACS 2020–2024 5-year tables B01001, B01001B/D/H/I, B15001, B19001, B23025, B25008, B26001; out of sample: B21001
- Geography
- 2020 Census tract to 2020 PUMA relationship file; tract population B01003; metro areas, OMB delineation of July 2023
- Citizenship
- ACS 2020–2024 5-year table B05003 (raked)
- Party lean
- Modelled. Priors: Cooperative Election Study 2024 common content (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/X11EP6, CC0), citizen respondents in the Census South, validated 2024 vote and 7-point party ID with leaners as partisans. Calibration: 2024 county presidential returns, MIT Election Data and Science Lab (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ, CC0), presidential votes standing in for ballots cast.