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Texas by county: Census 2020–2024

Every adult in Texas, as the Census counts them, county by county and grouped by metro area. Each person is a real combination of traits from the Census's anonymised person records, weighted so every county matches its published tables, with party lean and 2024 turnout modelled and labelled so.

254 places, by metro area / county · Team plan

Every plan can look; creating a population from a state by county or by município needs Team.

What each person has

Age
- 18-2413%
- 25-3419%
- 35-4419%
- 45-5416%
- 55-6415%
- 65-7411%
- and 1 more
Sex
- Man49%
- Woman51%
Race and ethnicity
- White42%
- Black12%
- Hispanic37%
- Asian6%
- Other or more than one race3%
Education
- No high school diploma14%
- High school diploma or GED26%
- Some college or associate's degree29%
- Bachelor's degree20%
- Graduate degree11%
Household income
- Under $25,00010%
- $25,000–49,99914%
- $50,000–74,99915%
- $75,000–99,99913%
- $100,000–149,99919%
- $150,000 or more25%
- and 1 more
Work
- Working62%
- Unemployed, looking for work3%
- Not in the labor force35%
Home
- Lives in an owned home65%
- Lives in a rented home32%
- Lives in group quarters3%
Marital status
- Married52%
- Widowed5%
- Divorced11%
- Separated2%
- Never married30%
Children at home
- No children at home63%
- Children at home37%
Veteran
- Not a veteran94%
- Veteran6%
Born
- Born in the US78%
- Born abroad22%
Health coverage
- Has health coverage80%
- No health coverage20%
Disability
- No disability84%
- Has a disability16%
Citizenship
- US citizen88%
- Not a US citizen12%
Party lean (modelled)
- Democratic-leaning37%
- Republican-leaning43%
- Independent or no lean20%
Voted in 2024 (modelled)
- Voted50%
- Did not vote37%
- Not eligible (not a citizen)12%

County by county

Adults in each county: darker has more. Point at a county for its numbers.

333,585,232adults, on a log scale

Error report

How close these people come to the published figures, and where they fall short.

22,643,776 adults · 1,048,662 Census records · 254 counties in 27 areas (metro areas and the rest of the state)

Built 2026-10-09 · records texas-2024-v1

How close the people land on the Census

Each county's records are weighted until they match its American Community Survey tables. The figure is the worst county's largest gap on each table, in percentage points.

Table	Worst county
Sex by age	36.8
Race and ethnicity	4.1
Education	2.8
Household income	16.9
Work	1.2
Owned or rented home	0.2
Citizenship	0.0

A check left out of the fit: veterans

Veteran status was not used in weighting, so it shows how well the weighted people carry traits nobody fitted. Per county, the share of veterans among civilian adults lands a median 0.8 points from the Census's own figure; 95% of counties within 3.7, the worst 7.5. The worst are the four smallest counties (Loving, with about 33 adults, Kenedy, McMullen and Edwards), whose Census estimates carry wide margins and, for Loving, do not agree with each other; and Coryell, home to Fort Cavazos, whose many veterans are spread across the larger Census area it shares.

What drawing a population adds

A population is a sample of these weighted people, so small counties vary from draw to draw. Largest gap per county between the people drawn and the county's records, counties with at least 30 people.

Trait	10,000 people		100,000 people
	Median	95% of counties within	Median	95% of counties within
Race and ethnicity	0.7	2.0	0.4	1.9
Education	3.3	10.0	1.9	6.9
Household income	1.9	6.2	1.1	4.9

Party lean and 2024 turnout (modelled)

No Census record says how anyone votes, so these two traits are modelled. Each person starts from what Cooperative Election Study 2024 respondents like them (race, age, education and sex, in the South) said and did, with turnout checked against the voter file. Each county is then calibrated so its people's turnout and Democratic-minus-Republican margin match its 2024 presidential result (MIT Election Lab). Those results count votes for president, so turnout runs a point or so under ballots cast.

Check	Margin	Turnout
Each county against its 2024 result (calibrated)	median 0.0, worst 0.0	median 0.0, worst 196.0
Demographics alone, given only the statewide result	median 35.3, worst 62.7	median 4.6, worst 222.6
The same, with priors that never saw a Texan	median 35.9, worst 63.9	median 4.5, worst 222.5

Leans against Texas's own survey respondents

Nothing was fitted to these: the share of each lean among Texas's adults, as modelled and as the CES's Texas respondents gave it.

	Democratic	Republican	Neither	Turnout
Model	37%	43%	20%
CES Texas (n=4,777)	36%	43%	21%
Priors that never saw a Texan, applied to Texas's 4,687 citizen respondents	38%	43%	19%	50%
CES Texas, citizens (n=4,687)	36%	44%	20%	49%

The county totals are right by construction: that is what calibration does. The honest test is the people alone, and they place Texas's counties worse than Georgia's: given only the statewide result, half the counties land 35 points or more from their margin. Demographics alone pull every county toward the state's average: rural white counties of the Panhandle and West Texas come out up to about 60 points less Republican than they voted, and the big cities (Austin's Travis County, Dallas, El Paso) 20 to 50 points less Democratic. The border counties land close.

In four small counties (Loving, Kenedy, McMullen, Edwards) more presidential votes were cast than the Census's five-year estimate of citizens, so turnout is held at 98%; their margins still match. Statewide, the model's leans land within a point or two of Texas's own survey respondents.

Use these traits to include or compare groups. They are not anyone's stated party, and results are never polls of real people.

Every county (254)

County	Area	Adults	Census gap	Veterans (Census / people)	Turnout 2024	Margin: result / demographics alone
Anderson	Small towns and rural Texas	47,244	0.2	7% / 7%	43%	−62 / −21
Andrews	Small towns and rural Texas	12,853	0.2	3% / 5%	52%	−73 / −22
Angelina	Small towns and rural Texas	65,205	0.3	7% / 7%	56%	−52 / −22
Aransas	Corpus Christi	20,742	0.4	9% / 12%	64%	−56 / −31
Archer	Wichita Falls	6,902	0.3	8% / 9%	76%	−79 / −32
Armstrong	Amarillo	1,471	0.4	11% / 8%	78%	−86 / −32
Atascosa	San Antonio-New Braunfels	37,467	0.2	9% / 9%	53%	−43 / −26
Austin	Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands	23,868	0.3	4% / 6%	70%	−63 / −28
Bailey	Small towns and rural Texas	5,057	0.3	4% / 4%	42%	−61 / −26
Bandera	San Antonio-New Braunfels	18,370	0.4	13% / 14%	77%	−62 / −34
Bastrop	Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos	78,901	0.1	8% / 7%	57%	−18 / −23
Baylor	Small towns and rural Texas	2,729	0.2	10% / 10%	62%	−77 / −34
Bee	Small towns and rural Texas	24,870	0.4	7% / 7%	36%	−40 / −20
Bell	Killeen-Temple	280,649	0.4	19% / 18%	49%	−16 / −7
Bexar	San Antonio-New Braunfels	1,557,299	0.4	10% / 10%	54%	+10 / −13
Blanco	Small towns and rural Texas	10,264	0.5	8% / 10%	86%	−52 / −33
Borden	Small towns and rural Texas	462	0.4	5% / 8%	85%	−91 / −28
Bosque	Waco	14,805	0.4	9% / 9%	68%	−67 / −34
Bowie	Texarkana	70,213	0.2	8% / 8%	54%	−49 / −15
Brazoria	Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands	291,185	0.5	6% / 6%	60%	−20 / −11
Brazos	College Station-Bryan	193,526	0.3	4% / 4%	53%	−25 / −10
Brewster	Small towns and rural Texas	7,915	0.3	9% / 7%	61%	−13 / −22
Briscoe	Small towns and rural Texas	1,031	0.5	7% / 8%	76%	−80 / −29
Brooks	Small towns and rural Texas	5,491	0.3	4% / 6%	46%	+10 / −23
Brown	Small towns and rural Texas	30,528	0.2	7% / 7%	57%	−74 / −31
Burleson	College Station-Bryan	14,719	0.1	7% / 8%	67%	−63 / −25
Burnet	Small towns and rural Texas	41,877	0.2	8% / 14%	72%	−56 / −32
Caldwell	Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos	37,397	0.2	7% / 7%	47%	−14 / −23
Calhoun	Small towns and rural Texas	15,361	0.4	9% / 8%	54%	−52 / −25
Callahan	Abilene	11,139	0.3	10% / 8%	63%	−78 / −33
Cameron	Brownsville-Harlingen	303,964	0.4	4% / 4%	47%	−6 / −19
Camp	Small towns and rural Texas	9,439	0.3	10% / 9%	62%	−54 / −19
Carson	Amarillo	4,453	0.3	8% / 8%	72%	−81 / −30
Cass	Small towns and rural Texas	22,155	0.3	9% / 9%	65%	−66 / −25
Castro	Small towns and rural Texas	5,209	0.2	7% / 5%	48%	−58 / −28
Chambers	Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands	37,372	0.3	8% / 7%	72%	−66 / −20
Cherokee	Small towns and rural Texas	38,835	0.3	7% / 8%	58%	−63 / −22
Childress	Small towns and rural Texas	5,379	0.4	3% / 6%	44%	−76 / −25
Clay	Wichita Falls	8,457	0.2	10% / 9%	71%	−80 / −34
Cochran	Lubbock	1,836	0.3	3% / 4%	59%	−66 / −28
Coke	Small towns and rural Texas	2,640	0.3	7% / 9%	69%	−80 / −35
Coleman	Small towns and rural Texas	6,222	0.1	8% / 9%	70%	−79 / −35
Collin	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington	875,753	0.3	5% / 5%	68%	−11 / −13
Collingsworth	Small towns and rural Texas	1,867	0.4	8% / 7%	68%	−78 / −27
Colorado	Small towns and rural Texas	16,107	0.2	6% / 7%	66%	−57 / −26
Comal	San Antonio-New Braunfels	143,183	0.1	12% / 12%	75%	−45 / −24
Comanche	Small towns and rural Texas	10,764	0.2	9% / 8%	67%	−74 / −33
Concho	Small towns and rural Texas	2,938	0.3	6% / 7%	45%	−74 / −29
Cooke	Small towns and rural Texas	33,059	0.3	7% / 8%	66%	−67 / −30
Coryell	Killeen-Temple	65,690	0.2	18% / 12%	38%	−41 / −17
Cottle	Small towns and rural Texas	1,118	0.4	2% / 6%	60%	−72 / −30
Crane	Small towns and rural Texas	3,247	0.2	7% / 5%	57%	−73 / −22
Crockett	Small towns and rural Texas	2,076	0.2	3% / 6%	75%	−54 / −30
Crosby	Lubbock	3,754	0.1	5% / 5%	52%	−51 / −28
Culberson	Small towns and rural Texas	1,603	0.3	13% / 9%	52%	−17 / −32
Dallam	Small towns and rural Texas	4,907	0.4	7% / 5%	38%	−78 / −27
Dallas	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington	1,962,638	0.4	4% / 4%	54%	+22 / −1
Dawson	Small towns and rural Texas	9,189	0.2	4% / 5%	41%	−61 / −24
Deaf Smith	Small towns and rural Texas	12,666	0.2	4% / 4%	41%	−52 / −26
Delta	Small towns and rural Texas	4,130	0.3	8% / 8%	65%	−70 / −27
Denton	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington	750,600	0.4	6% / 6%	67%	−13 / −14
DeWitt	Small towns and rural Texas	15,545	0.2	7% / 8%	52%	−67 / −27
Dickens	Small towns and rural Texas	1,376	0.4	4% / 7%	75%	−70 / −34
Dimmit	Small towns and rural Texas	6,202	0.5	4% / 4%	58%	+3 / −24
Donley	Small towns and rural Texas	2,684	0.2	6% / 6%	65%	−78 / −29
Duval	Small towns and rural Texas	7,288	0.2	5% / 4%	62%	−10 / −23
Eastland	Small towns and rural Texas	14,206	0.3	9% / 7%	62%	−77 / −32
Ector	Odessa	114,636	0.4	5% / 5%	43%	−53 / −19
Edwards	Small towns and rural Texas	994	0.2	4% / 7%	112%	−73 / −32
Ellis	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington	156,990	0.5	7% / 7%	68%	−31 / −16
El Paso	El Paso	643,939	0.2	8% / 8%	45%	+15 / −14
Erath	Small towns and rural Texas	34,721	0.1	6% / 6%	55%	−68 / −24
Falls	Waco	13,664	0.2	8% / 8%	49%	−45 / −16
Fannin	Small towns and rural Texas	29,458	0.3	8% / 9%	58%	−67 / −29
Fayette	Small towns and rural Texas	19,990	0.4	7% / 10%	70%	−61 / −31
Fisher	Small towns and rural Texas	2,826	0.1	9% / 8%	66%	−63 / −28
Floyd	Small towns and rural Texas	3,890	0.2	6% / 5%	60%	−65 / −27
Foard	Small towns and rural Texas	841	0.5	5% / 9%	65%	−65 / −35
Fort Bend	Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands	655,649	0.2	4% / 4%	65%	+2 / −1
Franklin	Small towns and rural Texas	8,258	0.2	6% / 8%	68%	−69 / −29
Freestone	Small towns and rural Texas	15,518	0.4	8% / 9%	61%	−66 / −22
Frio	Small towns and rural Texas	13,996	0.5	4% / 6%	40%	−25 / −20
Gaines	Small towns and rural Texas	14,271	0.3	3% / 3%	60%	−83 / −28
Galveston	Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands	274,306	0.3	7% / 7%	62%	−27 / −17
Garza	Lubbock	4,302	0.2	7% / 5%	42%	−73 / −22
Gillespie	Small towns and rural Texas	22,174	0.2	9% / 10%	77%	−61 / −32
Glasscock	Small towns and rural Texas	817	0.3	3% / 7%	91%	−88 / −28
Goliad	Victoria	5,729	0.2	9% / 9%	72%	−60 / −27
Gonzales	Small towns and rural Texas	14,795	0.1	5% / 7%	58%	−55 / −27
Gray	Small towns and rural Texas	15,832	0.4	7% / 6%	53%	−77 / −29
Grayson	Sherman-Denison	108,886	0.2	8% / 8%	64%	−54 / −28
Gregg	Longview	93,203	0.3	7% / 6%	54%	−42 / −17
Grimes	Small towns and rural Texas	24,313	0.4	7% / 8%	61%	−60 / −24
Guadalupe	San Antonio-New Braunfels	139,409	0.3	14% / 14%	64%	−30 / −17
Hale	Small towns and rural Texas	23,685	0.2	4% / 4%	42%	−58 / −23
Hall	Small towns and rural Texas	2,221	0.4	6% / 8%	54%	−73 / −29
Hamilton	Small towns and rural Texas	6,517	0.2	9% / 14%	72%	−71 / −34
Hansford	Small towns and rural Texas	3,665	0.4	6% / 5%	64%	−85 / −27
Hardeman	Small towns and rural Texas	2,755	0.2	6% / 8%	53%	−73 / −30
Hardin	Beaumont-Port Arthur	43,379	0.3	7% / 7%	66%	−76 / −29
Harris	Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands	3,585,232	0.3	4% / 4%	54%	+6 / −5
Harrison	Longview	53,311	0.3	7% / 8%	59%	−51 / −15
Hartley	Small towns and rural Texas	4,055	0.3	5% / 6%	54%	−83 / −25
Haskell	Small towns and rural Texas	4,440	0.3	7% / 7%	52%	−71 / −28
Hays	Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos	208,418	0.1	7% / 7%	64%	+6 / −16
Hemphill	Small towns and rural Texas	2,571	0.5	3% / 7%	71%	−76 / −32
Henderson	Small towns and rural Texas	66,698	0.3	9% / 9%	60%	−63 / −30
Hidalgo	McAllen-Edinburg-Mission	615,732	0.2	3% / 3%	47%	−3 / −17
Hill	Small towns and rural Texas	28,690	0.3	8% / 8%	61%	−64 / −29
Hockley	Lubbock	15,676	0.3	4% / 5%	55%	−66 / −25
Hood	Small towns and rural Texas	52,427	0.2	10% / 9%	72%	−66 / −32
Hopkins	Small towns and rural Texas	28,612	0.3	6% / 7%	64%	−65 / −27
Houston	Small towns and rural Texas	17,572	0.3	8% / 9%	55%	−55 / −21
Howard	Small towns and rural Texas	24,993	0.4	6% / 6%	43%	−63 / −24
Hudspeth	El Paso	2,802	0.3	7% / 4%	49%	−47 / −25
Hunt	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington	82,299	0.3	9% / 8%	61%	−55 / −25
Hutchinson	Small towns and rural Texas	15,153	0.2	8% / 7%	57%	−77 / −30
Irion	San Angelo	1,079	0.3	6% / 7%	83%	−76 / −31
Jack	Small towns and rural Texas	6,880	0.2	7% / 8%	64%	−82 / −32
Jackson	Small towns and rural Texas	11,425	0.3	6% / 8%	58%	−71 / −27
Jasper	Small towns and rural Texas	25,110	0.4	7% / 8%	64%	−67 / −26
Jeff Davis	Small towns and rural Texas	1,529	0.5	9% / 10%	80%	−21 / −33
Jefferson	Beaumont-Port Arthur	191,398	0.3	7% / 7%	50%	−9 / −4
Jim Hogg	Small towns and rural Texas	3,200	0.3	1% / 3%	50%	+8 / −17
Jim Wells	Small towns and rural Texas	28,241	0.3	6% / 6%	48%	−16 / −24
Johnson	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington	145,338	0.2	6% / 6%	58%	−51 / −25
Jones	Abilene	16,866	0.2	7% / 6%	43%	−73 / −26
Karnes	Small towns and rural Texas	12,060	0.4	4% / 7%	43%	−58 / −20
Kaufman	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington	122,955	0.2	6% / 6%	61%	−28 / −13
Kendall	San Antonio-New Braunfels	37,715	0.3	9% / 9%	83%	−56 / −27
Kenedy	Small towns and rural Texas	125	0.3	4% / 7%	178%	−47 / −30
Kent	Small towns and rural Texas	645	0.1	4% / 7%	69%	−76 / −37
Kerr	Small towns and rural Texas	43,814	0.3	10% / 9%	67%	−54 / −31
Kimble	Small towns and rural Texas	3,643	0.2	10% / 8%	69%	−78 / −33
King	Small towns and rural Texas	180	0.2	1% / 8%	75%	−91 / −29
Kinney	Small towns and rural Texas	2,927	0.1	12% / 12%	54%	−51 / −30
Kleberg	Small towns and rural Texas	23,216	0.4	9% / 6%	45%	−13 / −15
Knox	Small towns and rural Texas	2,448	0.2	5% / 7%	59%	−68 / −31
Lamar	Small towns and rural Texas	38,475	0.3	7% / 8%	57%	−61 / −23
Lamb	Small towns and rural Texas	9,339	0.4	4% / 5%	51%	−64 / −27
Lampasas	Killeen-Temple	17,886	0.1	20% / 15%	65%	−60 / −30
La Salle	Small towns and rural Texas	5,338	0.3	5% / 3%	47%	−21 / −22
Lavaca	Small towns and rural Texas	15,726	0.1	7% / 9%	70%	−76 / −30
Lee	Small towns and rural Texas	14,147	0.3	6% / 9%	63%	−60 / −26
Leon	Small towns and rural Texas	12,564	0.2	9% / 8%	76%	−77 / −30
Liberty	Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands	72,434	0.2	6% / 6%	52%	−62 / −22
Limestone	Small towns and rural Texas	17,296	0.3	8% / 8%	57%	−57 / −20
Lipscomb	Small towns and rural Texas	2,018	0.3	5% / 6%	72%	−80 / −31
Live Oak	Small towns and rural Texas	9,366	0.4	6% / 9%	60%	−70 / −27
Llano	Small towns and rural Texas	18,960	0.4	11% / 16%	75%	−61 / −37
Loving	Small towns and rural Texas	33	36.8	0% / 1%	294%	−78 / −39
Lubbock	Lubbock	243,912	0.3	5% / 5%	54%	−40 / −17
Lynn	Lubbock	4,153	0.4	4% / 5%	64%	−70 / −25
McCulloch	Small towns and rural Texas	5,867	0.4	10% / 7%	63%	−73 / −32
McLennan	Waco	202,331	0.3	7% / 7%	53%	−31 / −16
McMullen	Small towns and rural Texas	421	0.4	5% / 5%	124%	−84 / −26
Madison	Small towns and rural Texas	10,611	0.2	8% / 7%	56%	−64 / −18
Marion	Small towns and rural Texas	8,088	0.4	11% / 10%	59%	−53 / −21
Martin	Midland	3,660	0.4	4% / 5%	62%	−76 / −25
Mason	Small towns and rural Texas	3,197	0.3	8% / 9%	83%	−65 / −33
Matagorda	Small towns and rural Texas	27,045	0.3	8% / 6%	54%	−51 / −23
Maverick	Eagle Pass	40,184	0.4	3% / 4%	50%	−18 / −18
Medina	San Antonio-New Braunfels	41,577	0.3	11% / 11%	61%	−43 / −25
Menard	Small towns and rural Texas	1,538	0.4	11% / 10%	72%	−66 / −37
Midland	Midland	123,874	0.2	4% / 5%	52%	−61 / −16
Milam	Small towns and rural Texas	19,789	0.2	6% / 8%	58%	−57 / −27
Mills	Small towns and rural Texas	3,581	0.3	6% / 14%	79%	−77 / −34
Mitchell	Small towns and rural Texas	7,171	0.3	6% / 6%	36%	−71 / −25
Montague	Small towns and rural Texas	16,258	0.2	9% / 9%	70%	−78 / −35
Montgomery	Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands	507,403	0.4	7% / 7%	68%	−45 / −21
Moore	Small towns and rural Texas	14,735	0.1	4% / 5%	51%	−67 / −23
Morris	Small towns and rural Texas	9,299	0.3	11% / 8%	61%	−51 / −17
Motley	Small towns and rural Texas	1,036	0.2	10% / 8%	63%	−89 / −32
Nacogdoches	Small towns and rural Texas	49,980	0.1	6% / 6%	54%	−39 / −14
Navarro	Small towns and rural Texas	40,120	0.3	7% / 7%	56%	−52 / −22
Newton	Small towns and rural Texas	9,770	0.2	7% / 8%	59%	−67 / −27
Nolan	Small towns and rural Texas	10,787	0.2	6% / 7%	49%	−59 / −29
Nueces	Corpus Christi	269,370	0.2	9% / 8%	48%	−11 / −20
Ochiltree	Small towns and rural Texas	6,829	0.2	3% / 5%	58%	−82 / −27
Oldham	Amarillo	1,382	0.4	9% / 6%	75%	−84 / −28
Orange	Beaumont-Port Arthur	63,671	0.3	7% / 7%	58%	−67 / −27
Palo Pinto	Small towns and rural Texas	22,486	0.1	8% / 8%	62%	−67 / −32
Panola	Small towns and rural Texas	17,482	0.3	10% / 9%	67%	−66 / −25
Parker	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington	124,438	0.3	10% / 10%	75%	−66 / −28
Parmer	Small towns and rural Texas	7,040	0.4	5% / 5%	46%	−70 / −28
Pecos	Small towns and rural Texas	11,331	0.2	6% / 6%	41%	−45 / −19
Polk	Small towns and rural Texas	42,073	0.4	9% / 9%	59%	−59 / −30
Potter	Amarillo	85,009	0.1	6% / 6%	42%	−44 / −22
Presidio	Small towns and rural Texas	4,409	0.2	3% / 5%	61%	+30 / −25
Rains	Small towns and rural Texas	10,319	0.3	12% / 10%	65%	−73 / −33
Randall	Amarillo	111,257	0.3	9% / 8%	62%	−60 / −24
Reagan	Small towns and rural Texas	2,147	0.3	2% / 5%	52%	−69 / −19
Real	Small towns and rural Texas	2,126	0.2	14% / 14%	93%	−67 / −40
Red River	Small towns and rural Texas	9,253	0.2	9% / 9%	64%	−62 / −25
Reeves	Small towns and rural Texas	9,388	0.2	3% / 4%	42%	−37 / −22
Refugio	Small towns and rural Texas	5,250	0.1	8% / 10%	59%	−40 / −26
Roberts	Small towns and rural Texas	606	0.3	7% / 7%	94%	−92 / −31
Robertson	College Station-Bryan	13,053	0.5	7% / 7%	65%	−52 / −20
Rockwall	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington	90,862	0.3	8% / 8%	72%	−41 / −18
Runnels	Small towns and rural Texas	7,557	0.3	6% / 8%	55%	−77 / −30
Rusk	Longview	40,912	0.3	7% / 8%	56%	−59 / −21
Sabine	Small towns and rural Texas	8,239	0.2	13% / 11%	68%	−79 / −34
San Augustine	Small towns and rural Texas	6,301	0.5	12% / 8%	62%	−56 / −23
San Jacinto	Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands	22,321	0.3	10% / 9%	61%	−65 / −29
San Patricio	Corpus Christi	52,145	0.3	9% / 9%	52%	−36 / −25
San Saba	Small towns and rural Texas	4,606	0.2	5% / 13%	63%	−79 / −30
Schleicher	Small towns and rural Texas	1,833	0.2	8% / 7%	62%	−64 / −30
Scurry	Small towns and rural Texas	12,334	0.2	7% / 6%	48%	−74 / −28
Shackelford	Small towns and rural Texas	2,519	0.2	6% / 8%	69%	−82 / −30
Shelby	Small towns and rural Texas	17,875	0.4	5% / 7%	59%	−65 / −22
Sherman	Small towns and rural Texas	1,896	0.3	3% / 6%	58%	−88 / −30
Smith	Tyler	183,255	0.2	6% / 6%	60%	−45 / −17
Somervell	Small towns and rural Texas	7,609	0.5	9% / 9%	75%	−71 / −31
Starr	Small towns and rural Texas	44,595	0.1	2% / 2%	50%	−16 / −16
Stephens	Small towns and rural Texas	7,410	0.3	3% / 7%	53%	−79 / −32
Sterling	Small towns and rural Texas	959	0.3	2% / 5%	73%	−86 / −27
Stonewall	Small towns and rural Texas	919	0.3	6% / 9%	78%	−69 / −38
Sutton	Small towns and rural Texas	2,508	0.4	6% / 6%	61%	−67 / −27
Swisher	Small towns and rural Texas	5,277	0.4	4% / 5%	44%	−63 / −24
Tarrant	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington	1,617,373	0.4	6% / 6%	58%	−5 / −11
Taylor	Abilene	110,197	0.4	9% / 9%	53%	−50 / −20
Terrell	Small towns and rural Texas	691	0.1	9% / 9%	59%	−55 / −34
Terry	Small towns and rural Texas	8,412	0.2	6% / 5%	45%	−65 / −28
Throckmorton	Small towns and rural Texas	1,292	0.2	8% / 9%	71%	−83 / −34
Titus	Small towns and rural Texas	22,526	0.2	6% / 6%	54%	−55 / −21
Tom Green	San Angelo	91,181	0.5	10% / 9%	52%	−48 / −23
Travis	Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos	1,061,877	0.2	4% / 5%	62%	+39 / −11
Trinity	Small towns and rural Texas	11,327	0.2	8% / 10%	67%	−67 / −32
Tyler	Small towns and rural Texas	16,353	0.4	9% / 8%	60%	−73 / −29
Upshur	Longview	32,429	0.4	10% / 9%	63%	−71 / −27
Upton	Small towns and rural Texas	2,440	0.5	4% / 7%	57%	−77 / −31
Uvalde	Small towns and rural Texas	18,286	0.3	7% / 7%	57%	−33 / −23
Val Verde	Small towns and rural Texas	34,453	0.3	9% / 6%	49%	−27 / −18
Van Zandt	Small towns and rural Texas	48,263	0.3	9% / 9%	60%	−75 / −32
Victoria	Victoria	68,489	0.3	6% / 7%	54%	−43 / −23
Walker	Small towns and rural Texas	68,547	0.1	6% / 7%	38%	−40 / −16
Waller	Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands	46,942	0.2	5% / 5%	66%	−25 / −9
Ward	Small towns and rural Texas	7,889	0.4	6% / 5%	52%	−66 / −21
Washington	Small towns and rural Texas	28,890	0.3	7% / 8%	66%	−55 / −21
Webb	Laredo	185,105	0.3	3% / 3%	46%	−2 / −14
Wharton	Small towns and rural Texas	31,172	0.3	6% / 6%	56%	−52 / −22
Wheeler	Small towns and rural Texas	3,685	0.4	6% / 7%	68%	−85 / −34
Wichita	Wichita Falls	100,351	0.3	11% / 11%	47%	−44 / −21
Wilbarger	Small towns and rural Texas	9,908	0.5	6% / 7%	47%	−61 / −26
Willacy	Small towns and rural Texas	15,383	0.2	4% / 5%	40%	−3 / −22
Williamson	Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos	510,742	0.3	8% / 8%	67%	−2 / −17
Wilson	San Antonio-New Braunfels	40,386	0.4	13% / 9%	69%	−54 / −26
Winkler	Small towns and rural Texas	5,274	0.5	4% / 4%	42%	−71 / −24
Wise	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington	56,600	0.2	9% / 8%	72%	−70 / −30
Wood	Small towns and rural Texas	38,209	0.2	12% / 10%	66%	−70 / −33
Yoakum	Small towns and rural Texas	5,089	0.4	1% / 4%	58%	−71 / −25
Young	Small towns and rural Texas	13,883	0.2	7% / 8%	63%	−76 / −31
Zapata	Small towns and rural Texas	9,462	0.2	3% / 3%	68%	−22 / −19
Zavala	Small towns and rural Texas	6,655	0.2	2% / 5%	55%	+14 / −21

Sources

Records: ACS PUMS 2020–2024 5-year, Texas, adults 18+
Tables: ACS 2020–2024 5-year tables B01001, B01001B/D/H/I, B15001, B19001, B23025, B25008, B26001; out of sample: B21001
Geography: 2020 Census tract to 2020 PUMA relationship file; tract population B01003; metro areas, OMB delineation of July 2023
Citizenship: ACS 2020–2024 5-year table B05003 (raked)
Party lean: Modelled. Priors: Cooperative Election Study 2024 common content (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/X11EP6, CC0), citizen respondents in the Census South, validated 2024 vote and 7-point party ID with leaners as partisans. Calibration: 2024 county presidential returns, MIT Election Data and Science Lab (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ, CC0), presidential votes standing in for ballots cast.