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South Dakota by county: Census 2020–2024

Every adult in South Dakota, as the Census counts them, county by county and grouped by metro area. Each person is a real combination of traits from the Census's anonymised person records, weighted so every county matches its published tables, with party lean and 2024 turnout modelled and labelled so.

66 places, by metro area / county · Team plan

Every plan can look; creating a population from a state by county or by município needs Team.

What each person has

County by county

Adults in each county: darker has more. Point at a county for its numbers.

Aurora County: 1,968 adults (0.3%)Beadle County: 13,912 adults (2.0%)Bennett County: 2,171 adults (0.3%)Bon Homme County: 5,737 adults (0.8%)Brookings County: 27,898 adults (4.1%)Brown County: 28,929 adults (4.2%)Brule County: 4,000 adults (0.6%)Buffalo County: 1,100 adults (0.2%)Butte County: 8,029 adults (1.2%)Campbell County: 1,262 adults (0.2%)Charles Mix County: 6,430 adults (0.9%)Clark County: 2,766 adults (0.4%)Clay County: 12,574 adults (1.8%)Codington County: 22,155 adults (3.2%)Corson County: 2,461 adults (0.4%)Custer County: 7,667 adults (1.1%)Davison County: 15,244 adults (2.2%)Day County: 4,220 adults (0.6%)Deuel County: 3,280 adults (0.5%)Dewey County: 3,209 adults (0.5%)Douglas County: 2,106 adults (0.3%)Edmunds County: 3,092 adults (0.4%)Fall River County: 6,080 adults (0.9%)Faulk County: 1,595 adults (0.2%)Grant County: 5,886 adults (0.9%)Gregory County: 3,037 adults (0.4%)Haakon County: 1,372 adults (0.2%)Hamlin County: 4,262 adults (0.6%)Hand County: 2,346 adults (0.3%)Hanson County: 2,476 adults (0.4%)Harding County: 880 adults (0.1%)Hughes County: 13,352 adults (1.9%)Hutchinson County: 5,447 adults (0.8%)Hyde County: 977 adults (0.1%)Jackson County: 1,879 adults (0.3%)Jerauld County: 1,368 adults (0.2%)Jones County: 685 adults (0.1%)Kingsbury County: 3,927 adults (0.6%)Lake County: 8,826 adults (1.3%)Lawrence County: 22,798 adults (3.3%)Lincoln County: 51,947 adults (7.6%)Lyman County: 2,681 adults (0.4%)McCook County: 4,114 adults (0.6%)McPherson County: 1,732 adults (0.3%)Marshall County: 3,287 adults (0.5%)Meade County: 24,070 adults (3.5%)Mellette County: 1,386 adults (0.2%)Miner County: 1,796 adults (0.3%)Minnehaha County: 151,682 adults (22.1%)Moody County: 4,715 adults (0.7%)Oglala Lakota County: 8,714 adults (1.3%)Pennington County: 88,537 adults (12.9%)Perkins County: 2,330 adults (0.3%)Potter County: 1,901 adults (0.3%)Roberts County: 7,334 adults (1.1%)Sanborn County: 1,766 adults (0.3%)Spink County: 4,906 adults (0.7%)Stanley County: 2,376 adults (0.3%)Sully County: 1,190 adults (0.2%)Todd County: 5,661 adults (0.8%)Tripp County: 4,312 adults (0.6%)Turner County: 6,634 adults (1.0%)Union County: 12,973 adults (1.9%)Walworth County: 4,021 adults (0.6%)Yankton County: 18,440 adults (2.7%)Ziebach County: 1,777 adults (0.3%)
685151,682adults, on a log scale

Error report

How close these people come to the published figures, and where they fall short.

687,685 adults · 35,767 Census records · 66 counties in 4 areas (metro areas and the rest of the state)

Built 2026-10-10 · records south-dakota-2024-v1

How close the people land on the Census

Each county's records are weighted until they match its American Community Survey tables. The figure is the worst county's largest gap on each table, in percentage points.

TableWorst county
Sex by age0.5
Race and ethnicity0.4
Education0.4
Household income0.4
Work0.4
Owned or rented home0.3
Citizenship0.0

A check left out of the fit: veterans

Veteran status was not used in weighting, so it shows how well the weighted people carry traits nobody fitted. Per county, the share of veterans among civilian adults lands a median 0.9 points from the Census's own figure; 95% of counties within 4.8, the worst 5.3.

What drawing a population adds

A population is a sample of these weighted people, so small counties vary from draw to draw. Largest gap per county between the people drawn and the county's records, counties with at least 30 people.

Trait10,000 people100,000 people
Median95% of counties withinMedian95% of counties within
Race and ethnicity0.62.30.10.4
Education2.97.60.51.8
Household income1.54.50.20.9

Party lean and 2024 turnout (modelled)

No Census record says how anyone votes, so these two traits are modelled. Each person starts from what Cooperative Election Study 2024 respondents like them (race, age, education and sex, in the Census Midwest) said and did, with turnout checked against the voter file. Each county is then calibrated so its people's turnout and Democratic-minus-Republican margin match its 2024 presidential result (MIT Election Lab). Those results count votes for president, so turnout runs a point or so under ballots cast.

CheckMarginTurnout
Each county against its 2024 result (calibrated)median 0.0, worst 0.0median 0.0, worst 0.0
Demographics alone, given only the statewide resultmedian 17.0, worst 91.4median 4.4, worst 25.2
The same, with priors that never saw anyone from South Dakotamedian 16.7, worst 90.5median 4.4, worst 25.2

Leans against South Dakota's own survey respondents

Nothing was fitted to these: the share of each lean among South Dakota's adults, as modelled and as the CES's South Dakota respondents gave it.

DemocraticRepublicanNeitherTurnout
Model30%53%17%
CES South Dakota (n=173)25%57%18%
Priors that never saw anyone from South Dakota, applied to its 169 citizen respondents36%47%17%59%
CES South Dakota, citizens (n=169)25%57%18%59%

The county totals are right by construction: that is what calibration does. The honest test is the people alone, in the table above: given only the statewide result, how far each county's people land from its margin. Counties that vote very differently from people like them elsewhere in the region land furthest; the map shows where.

Within a county, calibration moves everyone's lean by the same factor, so lean by race inside one county is the weakest part. In the smallest counties the Census's five-year estimates carry wide margins, and where more presidential votes were cast than the estimate of citizens, turnout is held at 98%.

Use these traits to include or compare groups. They are not anyone's stated party, and results are never polls of real people.

Every county (66)
CountyAreaAdultsCensus gapVeterans (Census / people)Turnout 2024Margin: result / demographics alone
AuroraSmall towns and rural South Dakota1,9680.45% / 7%74%−54 / −35
BeadleSmall towns and rural South Dakota13,9120.46% / 6%54%−40 / −32
BennettSmall towns and rural South Dakota2,1710.37% / 6%51%−26 / −29
Bon HommeSmall towns and rural South Dakota5,7370.47% / 7%53%−51 / −34
BrookingsSmall towns and rural South Dakota27,8980.25% / 5%56%−17 / −25
BrownSmall towns and rural South Dakota28,9290.27% / 6%61%−27 / −30
BruleSmall towns and rural South Dakota4,0000.24% / 7%61%−42 / −33
BuffaloSmall towns and rural South Dakota1,1000.411% / 6%42%+27 / −27
ButteSmall towns and rural South Dakota8,0290.17% / 11%64%−61 / −35
CampbellSmall towns and rural South Dakota1,2620.48% / 9%70%−70 / −35
Charles MixSmall towns and rural South Dakota6,4300.38% / 7%56%−43 / −31
ClarkSmall towns and rural South Dakota2,7660.48% / 8%69%−53 / −37
ClaySmall towns and rural South Dakota12,5740.35% / 6%46%+7 / −22
CodingtonSmall towns and rural South Dakota22,1550.17% / 7%61%−41 / −34
CorsonSmall towns and rural South Dakota2,4610.47% / 6%46%−12 / −29
CusterRapid City7,6670.313% / 14%79%−46 / −32
DavisonSmall towns and rural South Dakota15,2440.17% / 6%61%−38 / −34
DaySmall towns and rural South Dakota4,2200.29% / 9%70%−30 / −35
DeuelSmall towns and rural South Dakota3,2800.28% / 8%71%−52 / −35
DeweySmall towns and rural South Dakota3,2090.34% / 5%59%+13 / −24
DouglasSmall towns and rural South Dakota2,1060.47% / 7%81%−72 / −35
EdmundsSmall towns and rural South Dakota3,0920.39% / 8%67%−61 / −35
Fall RiverSmall towns and rural South Dakota6,0800.315% / 10%72%−49 / −33
FaulkSmall towns and rural South Dakota1,5950.37% / 9%71%−65 / −35
GrantSmall towns and rural South Dakota5,8860.48% / 7%65%−45 / −36
GregorySmall towns and rural South Dakota3,0370.28% / 8%75%−60 / −35
HaakonSmall towns and rural South Dakota1,3720.26% / 8%82%−80 / −35
HamlinSmall towns and rural South Dakota4,2620.46% / 6%80%−60 / −34
HandSmall towns and rural South Dakota2,3460.55% / 7%76%−57 / −33
HansonSmall towns and rural South Dakota2,4760.28% / 7%83%−59 / −34
HardingSmall towns and rural South Dakota8800.210% / 12%93%−86 / −34
HughesSmall towns and rural South Dakota13,3520.49% / 8%63%−30 / −28
HutchinsonSmall towns and rural South Dakota5,4470.27% / 7%69%−58 / −33
HydeSmall towns and rural South Dakota9770.44% / 8%71%−55 / −38
JacksonSmall towns and rural South Dakota1,8790.33% / 7%60%−35 / −31
JerauldSmall towns and rural South Dakota1,3680.48% / 7%75%−43 / −37
JonesSmall towns and rural South Dakota6850.23% / 7%85%−76 / −32
KingsburySmall towns and rural South Dakota3,9270.47% / 7%72%−44 / −36
LakeSmall towns and rural South Dakota8,8260.18% / 7%69%−31 / −31
LawrenceSmall towns and rural South Dakota22,7980.110% / 12%68%−31 / −30
LincolnSioux Falls51,9470.36% / 7%72%−26 / −25
LymanSmall towns and rural South Dakota2,6810.35% / 7%54%−39 / −32
McCookSioux Falls4,1140.18% / 8%75%−49 / −32
McPhersonSmall towns and rural South Dakota1,7320.412% / 9%75%−69 / −37
MarshallSmall towns and rural South Dakota3,2870.39% / 8%66%−24 / −34
MeadeRapid City24,0700.413% / 11%62%−51 / −30
MelletteSmall towns and rural South Dakota1,3860.29% / 7%53%−20 / −30
MinerSmall towns and rural South Dakota1,7960.26% / 7%65%−47 / −39
MinnehahaSioux Falls151,6820.27% / 6%65%−13 / −26
MoodySmall towns and rural South Dakota4,7150.37% / 7%70%−32 / −31
Oglala LakotaSmall towns and rural South Dakota8,7140.34% / 3%35%+71 / −20
PenningtonRapid City88,5370.412% / 12%65%−26 / −29
PerkinsSmall towns and rural South Dakota2,3300.210% / 13%68%−70 / −33
PotterSmall towns and rural South Dakota1,9010.45% / 9%69%−65 / −36
RobertsSmall towns and rural South Dakota7,3340.48% / 8%57%−23 / −33
SanbornSmall towns and rural South Dakota1,7660.26% / 7%70%−55 / −35
SpinkSmall towns and rural South Dakota4,9060.38% / 8%65%−39 / −35
StanleySmall towns and rural South Dakota2,3760.26% / 8%73%−47 / −33
SullySmall towns and rural South Dakota1,1900.13% / 9%80%−61 / −34
ToddSmall towns and rural South Dakota5,6610.45% / 4%38%+50 / −19
TrippSmall towns and rural South Dakota4,3120.25% / 8%62%−63 / −36
TurnerSioux Falls6,6340.48% / 8%70%−51 / −33
UnionSioux City12,9730.48% / 9%69%−41 / −28
WalworthSmall towns and rural South Dakota4,0210.28% / 8%61%−59 / −31
YanktonSmall towns and rural South Dakota18,4400.28% / 8%60%−26 / −31
ZiebachSmall towns and rural South Dakota1,7770.37% / 6%44%−3 / −29

Sources

Records
ACS PUMS 2020–2024 5-year, South Dakota, adults 18+
Tables
ACS 2020–2024 5-year tables B01001, B01001B/D/H/I, B15001, B19001, B23025, B25008, B26001; out of sample: B21001
Geography
2020 Census tract to 2020 PUMA relationship file; tract population B01003; metro areas, OMB delineation of July 2023
Citizenship
ACS 2020–2024 5-year table B05003 (raked)
Party lean
Modelled. Priors: Cooperative Election Study 2024 common content (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/X11EP6, CC0), citizen respondents in the Census Midwest, validated 2024 vote and 7-point party ID with leaners as partisans. Calibration: 2024 county presidential returns, MIT Election Data and Science Lab (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ, CC0), presidential votes standing in for ballots cast.