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South Carolina by county: Census 2020–2024

Every adult in South Carolina, as the Census counts them, county by county and grouped by metro area. Each person is a real combination of traits from the Census's anonymised person records, weighted so every county matches its published tables, with party lean and 2024 turnout modelled and labelled so.

46 places, by metro area / county · Team plan

Every plan can look; creating a population from a state by county or by município needs Team.

What each person has

County by county

Adults in each county: darker has more. Point at a county for its numbers.

Abbeville County: 19,623 adults (0.5%)Aiken County: 136,781 adults (3.3%)Allendale County: 6,265 adults (0.2%)Anderson County: 162,924 adults (3.9%)Bamberg County: 10,660 adults (0.3%)Barnwell County: 15,651 adults (0.4%)Beaufort County: 161,218 adults (3.9%)Berkeley County: 188,513 adults (4.5%)Calhoun County: 11,543 adults (0.3%)Charleston County: 338,379 adults (8.1%)Cherokee County: 43,773 adults (1.1%)Chester County: 24,999 adults (0.6%)Chesterfield County: 34,075 adults (0.8%)Clarendon County: 25,344 adults (0.6%)Colleton County: 29,991 adults (0.7%)Darlington County: 48,664 adults (1.2%)Dillon County: 20,814 adults (0.5%)Dorchester County: 126,948 adults (3.1%)Edgefield County: 22,919 adults (0.6%)Fairfield County: 16,859 adults (0.4%)Florence County: 104,829 adults (2.5%)Georgetown County: 53,817 adults (1.3%)Greenville County: 422,724 adults (10.2%)Greenwood County: 53,936 adults (1.3%)Hampton County: 14,343 adults (0.3%)Horry County: 318,052 adults (7.6%)Jasper County: 26,283 adults (0.6%)Kershaw County: 52,454 adults (1.3%)Lancaster County: 81,952 adults (2.0%)Laurens County: 53,686 adults (1.3%)Lee County: 13,144 adults (0.3%)Lexington County: 234,854 adults (5.6%)McCormick County: 8,768 adults (0.2%)Marion County: 22,331 adults (0.5%)Marlboro County: 20,804 adults (0.5%)Newberry County: 30,204 adults (0.7%)Oconee County: 65,095 adults (1.6%)Orangeburg County: 65,403 adults (1.6%)Pickens County: 109,608 adults (2.6%)Richland County: 331,148 adults (8.0%)Saluda County: 14,935 adults (0.4%)Spartanburg County: 266,567 adults (6.4%)Sumter County: 79,902 adults (1.9%)Union County: 21,295 adults (0.5%)Williamsburg County: 24,400 adults (0.6%)York County: 224,327 adults (5.4%)
6,265422,724adults, on a log scale

Error report

How close these people come to the published figures, and where they fall short.

4,160,804 adults · 209,837 Census records · 46 counties in 11 areas (metro areas and the rest of the state)

Built 2026-10-10 · records south-carolina-2024-v1

How close the people land on the Census

Each county's records are weighted until they match its American Community Survey tables. The figure is the worst county's largest gap on each table, in percentage points.

TableWorst county
Sex by age0.4
Race and ethnicity0.4
Education0.4
Household income0.5
Work0.3
Owned or rented home0.1
Citizenship0.0

A check left out of the fit: veterans

Veteran status was not used in weighting, so it shows how well the weighted people carry traits nobody fitted. Per county, the share of veterans among civilian adults lands a median 0.5 points from the Census's own figure; 95% of counties within 3.2, the worst 5.1.

What drawing a population adds

A population is a sample of these weighted people, so small counties vary from draw to draw. Largest gap per county between the people drawn and the county's records, counties with at least 30 people.

Trait10,000 people100,000 people
Median95% of counties withinMedian95% of counties within
Race and ethnicity0.61.80.10.3
Education3.17.80.41.0
Household income1.25.20.10.7

Party lean and 2024 turnout (modelled)

No Census record says how anyone votes, so these two traits are modelled. Each person starts from what Cooperative Election Study 2024 respondents like them (race, age, education and sex, in the Census South) said and did, with turnout checked against the voter file. Each county is then calibrated so its people's turnout and Democratic-minus-Republican margin match its 2024 presidential result (MIT Election Lab). Those results count votes for president, so turnout runs a point or so under ballots cast.

CheckMarginTurnout
Each county against its 2024 result (calibrated)median 0.0, worst 0.0median 0.0, worst 0.0
Demographics alone, given only the statewide resultmedian 7.5, worst 29.4median 2.5, worst 13.5
The same, with priors that never saw anyone from South Carolinamedian 7.5, worst 29.3median 2.4, worst 13.6

Leans against South Carolina's own survey respondents

Nothing was fitted to these: the share of each lean among South Carolina's adults, as modelled and as the CES's South Carolina respondents gave it.

DemocraticRepublicanNeitherTurnout
Model37%46%17%
CES South Carolina (n=988)39%45%16%
Priors that never saw anyone from South Carolina, applied to its 983 citizen respondents38%45%17%56%
CES South Carolina, citizens (n=983)37%46%17%52%

The county totals are right by construction: that is what calibration does. The honest test is the people alone, in the table above: given only the statewide result, how far each county's people land from its margin. Counties that vote very differently from people like them elsewhere in the region land furthest; the map shows where.

Within a county, calibration moves everyone's lean by the same factor, so lean by race inside one county is the weakest part. In the smallest counties the Census's five-year estimates carry wide margins, and where more presidential votes were cast than the estimate of citizens, turnout is held at 98%.

Use these traits to include or compare groups. They are not anyone's stated party, and results are never polls of real people.

Every county (46)
CountyAreaAdultsCensus gapVeterans (Census / people)Turnout 2024Margin: result / demographics alone
AbbevilleSmall towns and rural South Carolina19,6230.47% / 8%62%−42 / −21
AikenAugusta-Richmond County136,7810.310% / 10%64%−26 / −20
AllendaleSmall towns and rural South Carolina6,2650.45% / 10%49%+45 / +22
AndersonGreenville-Anderson-Greer162,9240.48% / 8%62%−47 / −27
BambergSmall towns and rural South Carolina10,6600.36% / 10%54%+15 / +13
BarnwellSmall towns and rural South Carolina15,6510.27% / 7%64%−16 / −9
BeaufortHilton Head Island-Bluffton-Port Royal161,2180.311% / 10%68%−14 / −26
BerkeleyCharleston-North Charleston188,5130.112% / 12%62%−16 / −16
CalhounColumbia11,5430.310% / 8%69%−14 / −10
CharlestonCharleston-North Charleston338,3790.38% / 8%66%+6 / −14
CherokeeSmall towns and rural South Carolina43,7730.27% / 7%58%−51 / −25
ChesterCharlotte-Concord-Gastonia24,9990.48% / 7%63%−17 / −16
ChesterfieldSmall towns and rural South Carolina34,0750.37% / 7%56%−28 / −18
ClarendonSmall towns and rural South Carolina25,3440.17% / 8%65%−12 / −8
ColletonSmall towns and rural South Carolina29,9910.39% / 10%63%−18 / −14
DarlingtonFlorence48,6640.45% / 7%63%−13 / −9
DillonSmall towns and rural South Carolina20,8140.15% / 7%58%−11 / −7
DorchesterCharleston-North Charleston126,9480.312% / 12%63%−15 / −17
EdgefieldAugusta-Richmond County22,9190.28% / 7%63%−32 / −16
FairfieldColumbia16,8590.37% / 8%67%+13 / +2
FlorenceFlorence104,8290.27% / 7%59%−8 / −6
GeorgetownSmall towns and rural South Carolina53,8170.49% / 9%71%−20 / −21
GreenvilleGreenville-Anderson-Greer422,7240.27% / 7%66%−22 / −21
GreenwoodSmall towns and rural South Carolina53,9360.46% / 7%59%−29 / −17
HamptonSmall towns and rural South Carolina14,3430.17% / 9%58%+6 / +2
HorryMyrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach318,0520.39% / 9%67%−39 / −32
JasperHilton Head Island-Bluffton-Port Royal26,2830.37% / 8%76%−10 / −17
KershawColumbia52,4540.310% / 12%65%−28 / −21
LancasterCharlotte-Concord-Gastonia81,9520.38% / 7%69%−25 / −23
LaurensGreenville-Anderson-Greer53,6860.36% / 7%58%−41 / −23
LeeSmall towns and rural South Carolina13,1440.26% / 10%63%+18 / +11
LexingtonColumbia234,8540.59% / 9%65%−33 / −25
McCormickSmall towns and rural South Carolina8,7680.49% / 10%70%−17 / −15
MarionSmall towns and rural South Carolina22,3310.37% / 7%61%+11 / −1
MarlboroSmall towns and rural South Carolina20,8040.26% / 7%50%+2 / −4
NewberrySmall towns and rural South Carolina30,2040.37% / 7%62%−34 / −18
OconeeSmall towns and rural South Carolina65,0950.38% / 8%67%−52 / −35
OrangeburgSmall towns and rural South Carolina65,4030.36% / 7%57%+25 / +10
PickensGreenville-Anderson-Greer109,6080.26% / 6%57%−53 / −29
RichlandColumbia331,1480.310% / 9%57%+35 / +5
SaludaColumbia14,9350.37% / 7%65%−44 / −23
SpartanburgSpartanburg266,5670.37% / 7%62%−34 / −21
SumterSumter79,9020.214% / 12%57%+5 / +0
UnionSpartanburg21,2950.28% / 7%58%−33 / −21
WilliamsburgSmall towns and rural South Carolina24,4000.25% / 7%60%+22 / +11
YorkCharlotte-Concord-Gastonia224,3270.37% / 7%70%−19 / −21

Sources

Records
ACS PUMS 2020–2024 5-year, South Carolina, adults 18+
Tables
ACS 2020–2024 5-year tables B01001, B01001B/D/H/I, B15001, B19001, B23025, B25008, B26001; out of sample: B21001
Geography
2020 Census tract to 2020 PUMA relationship file; tract population B01003; metro areas, OMB delineation of July 2023
Citizenship
ACS 2020–2024 5-year table B05003 (raked)
Party lean
Modelled. Priors: Cooperative Election Study 2024 common content (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/X11EP6, CC0), citizen respondents in the Census South, validated 2024 vote and 7-point party ID with leaners as partisans. Calibration: 2024 county presidential returns, MIT Election Data and Science Lab (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ, CC0), presidential votes standing in for ballots cast.