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Oklahoma by county: Census 2020–2024

Every adult in Oklahoma, as the Census counts them, county by county and grouped by metro area. Each person is a real combination of traits from the Census's anonymised person records, weighted so every county matches its published tables, with party lean and 2024 turnout modelled and labelled so.

77 places, by metro area / county · Team plan

Every plan can look; creating a population from a state by county or by município needs Team.

What each person has

County by county

Adults in each county: darker has more. Point at a county for its numbers.

Adair County: 14,458 adults (0.5%)Alfalfa County: 4,651 adults (0.2%)Atoka County: 11,318 adults (0.4%)Beaver County: 3,791 adults (0.1%)Beckham County: 17,023 adults (0.6%)Blaine County: 6,462 adults (0.2%)Bryan County: 36,840 adults (1.2%)Caddo County: 20,364 adults (0.7%)Canadian County: 125,641 adults (4.1%)Carter County: 36,434 adults (1.2%)Cherokee County: 37,783 adults (1.2%)Choctaw County: 10,795 adults (0.4%)Cimarron County: 1,762 adults (0.1%)Cleveland County: 238,772 adults (7.8%)Coal County: 4,036 adults (0.1%)Comanche County: 92,796 adults (3.0%)Cotton County: 4,232 adults (0.1%)Craig County: 11,049 adults (0.4%)Creek County: 55,871 adults (1.8%)Custer County: 21,209 adults (0.7%)Delaware County: 33,109 adults (1.1%)Dewey County: 3,168 adults (0.1%)Ellis County: 2,869 adults (0.1%)Garfield County: 46,041 adults (1.5%)Garvin County: 19,373 adults (0.6%)Grady County: 43,462 adults (1.4%)Grant County: 3,152 adults (0.1%)Greer County: 4,395 adults (0.1%)Harmon County: 1,819 adults (0.1%)Harper County: 2,440 adults (0.1%)Haskell County: 8,933 adults (0.3%)Hughes County: 10,517 adults (0.3%)Jackson County: 18,528 adults (0.6%)Jefferson County: 4,033 adults (0.1%)Johnston County: 7,874 adults (0.3%)Kay County: 32,803 adults (1.1%)Kingfisher County: 11,310 adults (0.4%)Kiowa County: 6,362 adults (0.2%)Latimer County: 7,430 adults (0.2%)Le Flore County: 37,100 adults (1.2%)Lincoln County: 26,191 adults (0.9%)Logan County: 40,517 adults (1.3%)Love County: 7,787 adults (0.3%)McClain County: 33,916 adults (1.1%)McCurtain County: 22,722 adults (0.7%)McIntosh County: 15,531 adults (0.5%)Major County: 5,695 adults (0.2%)Marshall County: 12,118 adults (0.4%)Mayes County: 30,433 adults (1.0%)Murray County: 10,630 adults (0.3%)Muskogee County: 50,249 adults (1.6%)Noble County: 8,431 adults (0.3%)Nowata County: 7,264 adults (0.2%)Okfuskee County: 8,737 adults (0.3%)Oklahoma County: 601,885 adults (19.6%)Okmulgee County: 28,204 adults (0.9%)Osage County: 36,380 adults (1.2%)Ottawa County: 22,681 adults (0.7%)Pawnee County: 12,130 adults (0.4%)Payne County: 67,678 adults (2.2%)Pittsburg County: 33,672 adults (1.1%)Pontotoc County: 28,685 adults (0.9%)Pottawatomie County: 56,484 adults (1.8%)Pushmataha County: 8,476 adults (0.3%)Roger Mills County: 2,544 adults (0.1%)Rogers County: 75,723 adults (2.5%)Seminole County: 17,780 adults (0.6%)Sequoyah County: 30,324 adults (1.0%)Stephens County: 33,639 adults (1.1%)Texas County: 14,791 adults (0.5%)Tillman County: 5,265 adults (0.2%)Tulsa County: 510,235 adults (16.7%)Wagoner County: 66,149 adults (2.2%)Washington County: 40,506 adults (1.3%)Washita County: 8,201 adults (0.3%)Woods County: 6,806 adults (0.2%)Woodward County: 15,289 adults (0.5%)
1,762601,885adults, on a log scale

Error report

How close these people come to the published figures, and where they fall short.

3,063,753 adults · 151,726 Census records · 77 counties in 6 areas (metro areas and the rest of the state)

Built 2026-10-10 · records oklahoma-2024-v1

How close the people land on the Census

Each county's records are weighted until they match its American Community Survey tables. The figure is the worst county's largest gap on each table, in percentage points.

TableWorst county
Sex by age0.5
Race and ethnicity0.5
Education0.5
Household income0.5
Work0.4
Owned or rented home0.1
Citizenship0.0

A check left out of the fit: veterans

Veteran status was not used in weighting, so it shows how well the weighted people carry traits nobody fitted. Per county, the share of veterans among civilian adults lands a median 0.6 points from the Census's own figure; 95% of counties within 3.4, the worst 7.0.

What drawing a population adds

A population is a sample of these weighted people, so small counties vary from draw to draw. Largest gap per county between the people drawn and the county's records, counties with at least 30 people.

Trait10,000 people100,000 people
Median95% of counties withinMedian95% of counties within
Race and ethnicity0.62.00.10.7
Education3.08.80.52.4
Household income1.53.20.31.4

Party lean and 2024 turnout (modelled)

No Census record says how anyone votes, so these two traits are modelled. Each person starts from what Cooperative Election Study 2024 respondents like them (race, age, education and sex, in the Census South) said and did, with turnout checked against the voter file. Each county is then calibrated so its people's turnout and Democratic-minus-Republican margin match its 2024 presidential result (MIT Election Lab). Those results count votes for president, so turnout runs a point or so under ballots cast.

CheckMarginTurnout
Each county against its 2024 result (calibrated)median 0.0, worst 0.0median 0.0, worst 0.0
Demographics alone, given only the statewide resultmedian 20.5, worst 41.4median 3.2, worst 16.0
The same, with priors that never saw anyone from Oklahomamedian 20.7, worst 41.2median 3.3, worst 15.9

Leans against Oklahoma's own survey respondents

Nothing was fitted to these: the share of each lean among Oklahoma's adults, as modelled and as the CES's Oklahoma respondents gave it.

DemocraticRepublicanNeitherTurnout
Model29%51%20%
CES Oklahoma (n=693)27%55%19%
Priors that never saw anyone from Oklahoma, applied to its 687 citizen respondents32%49%19%52%
CES Oklahoma, citizens (n=687)27%56%17%50%

The county totals are right by construction: that is what calibration does. The honest test is the people alone, in the table above: given only the statewide result, how far each county's people land from its margin. Counties that vote very differently from people like them elsewhere in the region land furthest; the map shows where.

Within a county, calibration moves everyone's lean by the same factor, so lean by race inside one county is the weakest part. In the smallest counties the Census's five-year estimates carry wide margins, and where more presidential votes were cast than the estimate of citizens, turnout is held at 98%.

Use these traits to include or compare groups. They are not anyone's stated party, and results are never polls of real people.

Every county (77)
CountyAreaAdultsCensus gapVeterans (Census / people)Turnout 2024Margin: result / demographics alone
AdairSmall towns and rural Oklahoma14,4580.17% / 7%51%−63 / −37
AlfalfaSmall towns and rural Oklahoma4,6510.49% / 8%47%−77 / −43
AtokaSmall towns and rural Oklahoma11,3180.27% / 8%50%−72 / −40
BeaverSmall towns and rural Oklahoma3,7910.35% / 6%60%−84 / −43
BeckhamSmall towns and rural Oklahoma17,0230.55% / 7%47%−70 / −41
BlaineSmall towns and rural Oklahoma6,4620.27% / 6%61%−63 / −44
BryanSmall towns and rural Oklahoma36,8400.27% / 7%50%−59 / −38
CaddoSmall towns and rural Oklahoma20,3640.37% / 8%48%−47 / −38
CanadianOklahoma City125,6410.48% / 8%60%−40 / −35
CarterSmall towns and rural Oklahoma36,4340.57% / 7%55%−55 / −37
CherokeeSmall towns and rural Oklahoma37,7830.56% / 7%48%−33 / −33
ChoctawSmall towns and rural Oklahoma10,7950.19% / 7%53%−65 / −37
CimarronSmall towns and rural Oklahoma1,7620.35% / 5%58%−85 / −45
ClevelandOklahoma City238,7720.29% / 9%52%−15 / −32
CoalSmall towns and rural Oklahoma4,0360.27% / 8%63%−71 / −42
ComancheLawton92,7960.317% / 16%38%−23 / −27
CottonLawton4,2320.210% / 15%60%−67 / −41
CraigSmall towns and rural Oklahoma11,0490.46% / 7%56%−58 / −42
CreekTulsa55,8710.58% / 8%57%−56 / −42
CusterSmall towns and rural Oklahoma21,2090.25% / 7%50%−53 / −35
DelawareSmall towns and rural Oklahoma33,1090.29% / 9%55%−60 / −44
DeweySmall towns and rural Oklahoma3,1680.26% / 6%71%−80 / −44
EllisSmall towns and rural Oklahoma2,8690.27% / 6%65%−77 / −46
GarfieldEnid46,0410.38% / 8%50%−54 / −40
GarvinSmall towns and rural Oklahoma19,3730.47% / 8%59%−66 / −42
GradyOklahoma City43,4620.28% / 8%59%−63 / −41
GrantSmall towns and rural Oklahoma3,1520.39% / 10%68%−71 / −43
GreerSmall towns and rural Oklahoma4,3950.211% / 8%42%−66 / −42
HarmonSmall towns and rural Oklahoma1,8190.24% / 7%51%−62 / −37
HarperSmall towns and rural Oklahoma2,4400.36% / 6%68%−78 / −44
HaskellSmall towns and rural Oklahoma8,9330.57% / 7%56%−70 / −42
HughesSmall towns and rural Oklahoma10,5170.58% / 8%45%−63 / −38
JacksonSmall towns and rural Oklahoma18,5280.315% / 8%45%−58 / −35
JeffersonSmall towns and rural Oklahoma4,0330.38% / 7%61%−72 / −45
JohnstonSmall towns and rural Oklahoma7,8740.38% / 8%55%−66 / −41
KaySmall towns and rural Oklahoma32,8030.28% / 9%53%−49 / −41
KingfisherSmall towns and rural Oklahoma11,3100.24% / 6%64%−71 / −42
KiowaSmall towns and rural Oklahoma6,3620.27% / 9%52%−58 / −43
LatimerSmall towns and rural Oklahoma7,4300.39% / 9%55%−66 / −42
Le FloreSmall towns and rural Oklahoma37,1000.38% / 7%52%−65 / −41
LincolnOklahoma City26,1910.29% / 9%59%−63 / −43
LoganOklahoma City40,5170.29% / 7%62%−49 / −37
LoveSmall towns and rural Oklahoma7,7870.27% / 7%57%−66 / −42
McClainOklahoma City33,9160.28% / 8%65%−61 / −40
McCurtainSmall towns and rural Oklahoma22,7220.17% / 7%51%−69 / −38
McIntoshSmall towns and rural Oklahoma15,5310.410% / 10%55%−53 / −43
MajorSmall towns and rural Oklahoma5,6950.47% / 6%63%−79 / −45
MarshallSmall towns and rural Oklahoma12,1180.19% / 9%57%−63 / −43
MayesSmall towns and rural Oklahoma30,4330.29% / 8%57%−57 / −42
MurraySmall towns and rural Oklahoma10,6300.28% / 8%57%−61 / −43
MuskogeeSmall towns and rural Oklahoma50,2490.49% / 8%49%−38 / −34
NobleSmall towns and rural Oklahoma8,4310.36% / 9%59%−57 / −44
NowataSmall towns and rural Oklahoma7,2640.54% / 9%63%−67 / −43
OkfuskeeSmall towns and rural Oklahoma8,7370.58% / 8%46%−56 / −39
OklahomaOklahoma City601,8850.58% / 8%52%−2 / −26
OkmulgeeTulsa28,2040.28% / 8%51%−43 / −36
OsageTulsa36,3800.18% / 9%57%−41 / −34
OttawaSmall towns and rural Oklahoma22,6810.28% / 7%50%−53 / −41
PawneeTulsa12,1300.29% / 9%57%−59 / −44
PayneSmall towns and rural Oklahoma67,6780.35% / 5%46%−25 / −29
PittsburgSmall towns and rural Oklahoma33,6720.210% / 9%53%−59 / −40
PontotocSmall towns and rural Oklahoma28,6850.27% / 7%54%−47 / −36
PottawatomieSmall towns and rural Oklahoma56,4840.38% / 8%52%−47 / −39
PushmatahaSmall towns and rural Oklahoma8,4760.38% / 8%56%−73 / −43
Roger MillsSmall towns and rural Oklahoma2,5440.26% / 7%69%−80 / −44
RogersTulsa75,7230.29% / 9%63%−55 / −39
SeminoleSmall towns and rural Oklahoma17,7800.38% / 8%46%−50 / −40
SequoyahFort Smith30,3240.29% / 8%52%−62 / −41
StephensSmall towns and rural Oklahoma33,6390.39% / 7%56%−64 / −43
TexasSmall towns and rural Oklahoma14,7910.34% / 4%46%−68 / −35
TillmanSmall towns and rural Oklahoma5,2650.17% / 8%50%−59 / −40
TulsaTulsa510,2350.37% / 7%54%−15 / −32
WagonerTulsa66,1490.29% / 9%60%−50 / −37
WashingtonSmall towns and rural Oklahoma40,5060.28% / 8%58%−48 / −39
WashitaSmall towns and rural Oklahoma8,2010.27% / 8%58%−75 / −44
WoodsSmall towns and rural Oklahoma6,8060.55% / 6%54%−64 / −37
WoodwardSmall towns and rural Oklahoma15,2890.26% / 6%50%−72 / −42

Sources

Records
ACS PUMS 2020–2024 5-year, Oklahoma, adults 18+
Tables
ACS 2020–2024 5-year tables B01001, B01001B/D/H/I, B15001, B19001, B23025, B25008, B26001; out of sample: B21001
Geography
2020 Census tract to 2020 PUMA relationship file; tract population B01003; metro areas, OMB delineation of July 2023
Citizenship
ACS 2020–2024 5-year table B05003 (raked)
Party lean
Modelled. Priors: Cooperative Election Study 2024 common content (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/X11EP6, CC0), citizen respondents in the Census South, validated 2024 vote and 7-point party ID with leaners as partisans. Calibration: 2024 county presidential returns, MIT Election Data and Science Lab (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ, CC0), presidential votes standing in for ballots cast.