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Ohio by county: Census 2020–2024

Every adult in Ohio, as the Census counts them, county by county and grouped by metro area. Each person is a real combination of traits from the Census's anonymised person records, weighted so every county matches its published tables, with party lean and 2024 turnout modelled and labelled so.

88 places, by metro area / county · Team plan

Every plan can look; creating a population from a state by county or by município needs Team.

What each person has

County by county

Adults in each county: darker has more. Point at a county for its numbers.

Adams County: 20,971 adults (0.2%)Allen County: 77,512 adults (0.8%)Ashland County: 40,496 adults (0.4%)Ashtabula County: 75,937 adults (0.8%)Athens County: 52,585 adults (0.6%)Auglaize County: 35,099 adults (0.4%)Belmont County: 53,212 adults (0.6%)Brown County: 33,862 adults (0.4%)Butler County: 301,104 adults (3.3%)Carroll County: 21,209 adults (0.2%)Champaign County: 30,242 adults (0.3%)Clark County: 104,639 adults (1.1%)Clermont County: 164,459 adults (1.8%)Clinton County: 32,482 adults (0.4%)Columbiana County: 80,375 adults (0.9%)Coshocton County: 27,996 adults (0.3%)Crawford County: 32,641 adults (0.4%)Cuyahoga County: 990,778 adults (10.8%)Darke County: 39,394 adults (0.4%)Defiance County: 29,717 adults (0.3%)Delaware County: 170,570 adults (1.9%)Erie County: 60,089 adults (0.7%)Fairfield County: 124,477 adults (1.4%)Fayette County: 22,115 adults (0.2%)Franklin County: 1,022,938 adults (11.1%)Fulton County: 32,490 adults (0.4%)Gallia County: 22,211 adults (0.2%)Geauga County: 74,296 adults (0.8%)Greene County: 134,798 adults (1.5%)Guernsey County: 29,768 adults (0.3%)Hamilton County: 639,895 adults (6.9%)Hancock County: 58,563 adults (0.6%)Hardin County: 23,508 adults (0.3%)Harrison County: 11,305 adults (0.1%)Henry County: 21,135 adults (0.2%)Highland County: 33,116 adults (0.4%)Hocking County: 21,838 adults (0.2%)Holmes County: 30,975 adults (0.3%)Huron County: 44,536 adults (0.5%)Jackson County: 24,883 adults (0.3%)Jefferson County: 51,991 adults (0.6%)Knox County: 48,756 adults (0.5%)Lake County: 187,416 adults (2.0%)Lawrence County: 44,553 adults (0.5%)Licking County: 140,332 adults (1.5%)Logan County: 35,613 adults (0.4%)Lorain County: 248,798 adults (2.7%)Lucas County: 330,509 adults (3.6%)Madison County: 35,563 adults (0.4%)Mahoning County: 180,571 adults (2.0%)Marion County: 51,156 adults (0.6%)Medina County: 144,444 adults (1.6%)Meigs County: 17,387 adults (0.2%)Mercer County: 31,674 adults (0.3%)Miami County: 85,053 adults (0.9%)Monroe County: 10,538 adults (0.1%)Montgomery County: 417,262 adults (4.5%)Morgan County: 10,800 adults (0.1%)Morrow County: 27,712 adults (0.3%)Muskingum County: 66,822 adults (0.7%)Noble County: 11,570 adults (0.1%)Ottawa County: 32,979 adults (0.4%)Paulding County: 14,354 adults (0.2%)Perry County: 27,208 adults (0.3%)Pickaway County: 47,161 adults (0.5%)Pike County: 20,700 adults (0.2%)Portage County: 132,490 adults (1.4%)Preble County: 31,722 adults (0.3%)Putnam County: 25,561 adults (0.3%)Richland County: 97,873 adults (1.1%)Ross County: 60,394 adults (0.7%)Sandusky County: 46,100 adults (0.5%)Scioto County: 56,892 adults (0.6%)Seneca County: 43,042 adults (0.5%)Shelby County: 36,205 adults (0.4%)Stark County: 293,188 adults (3.2%)Summit County: 426,570 adults (4.6%)Trumbull County: 159,566 adults (1.7%)Tuscarawas County: 70,931 adults (0.8%)Union County: 51,076 adults (0.6%)Van Wert County: 22,195 adults (0.2%)Vinton County: 10,005 adults (0.1%)Warren County: 190,537 adults (2.1%)Washington County: 47,272 adults (0.5%)Wayne County: 88,652 adults (1.0%)Williams County: 28,635 adults (0.3%)Wood County: 105,345 adults (1.1%)Wyandot County: 16,754 adults (0.2%)
10,0051,022,938adults, on a log scale

Error report

How close these people come to the published figures, and where they fall short.

9,210,143 adults · 473,810 Census records · 88 counties in 16 areas (metro areas and the rest of the state)

Built 2026-10-09 · records ohio-2024-v1

How close the people land on the Census

Each county's records are weighted until they match its American Community Survey tables. The figure is the worst county's largest gap on each table, in percentage points.

TableWorst county
Sex by age0.5
Race and ethnicity0.5
Education0.5
Household income0.5
Work0.2
Owned or rented home0.2
Citizenship0.0

A check left out of the fit: veterans

Veteran status was not used in weighting, so it shows how well the weighted people carry traits nobody fitted. Per county, the share of veterans among civilian adults lands a median 0.3 points from the Census's own figure; 95% of counties within 1.7, the worst 2.1.

What drawing a population adds

A population is a sample of these weighted people, so small counties vary from draw to draw. Largest gap per county between the people drawn and the county's records, counties with at least 30 people.

Trait10,000 people100,000 people
Median95% of counties withinMedian95% of counties within
Race and ethnicity0.82.00.10.4
Education2.56.90.61.7
Household income1.95.40.30.8

Party lean and 2024 turnout (modelled)

No Census record says how anyone votes, so these two traits are modelled. Each person starts from what Cooperative Election Study 2024 respondents like them (race, age, education and sex, in the Census Midwest) said and did, with turnout checked against the voter file. Each county is then calibrated so its people's turnout and Democratic-minus-Republican margin match its 2024 presidential result (MIT Election Lab). Those results count votes for president, so turnout runs a point or so under ballots cast.

CheckMarginTurnout
Each county against its 2024 result (calibrated)median 0.0, worst 0.0median 0.0, worst 0.0
Demographics alone, given only the statewide resultmedian 24.4, worst 48.1median 2.6, worst 12.5
The same, with priors that never saw anyone from Ohiomedian 24.8, worst 48.5median 2.6, worst 12.1

Leans against Ohio's own survey respondents

Nothing was fitted to these: the share of each lean among Ohio's adults, as modelled and as the CES's Ohio respondents gave it.

DemocraticRepublicanNeitherTurnout
Model38%45%17%
CES Ohio (n=2,543)34%46%20%
Priors that never saw anyone from Ohio, applied to its 2,522 citizen respondents40%42%18%59%
CES Ohio, citizens (n=2,522)34%46%20%54%

The county totals are right by construction: that is what calibration does. The honest test is the people alone, in the table above: given only the statewide result, how far each county's people land from its margin. Counties that vote very differently from people like them elsewhere in the region land furthest; the map shows where.

Within a county, calibration moves everyone's lean by the same factor, so lean by race inside one county is the weakest part. In the smallest counties the Census's five-year estimates carry wide margins, and where more presidential votes were cast than the estimate of citizens, turnout is held at 98%.

Use these traits to include or compare groups. They are not anyone's stated party, and results are never polls of real people.

Every county (88)
CountyAreaAdultsCensus gapVeterans (Census / people)Turnout 2024Margin: result / demographics alone
AdamsSmall towns and rural Ohio20,9710.48% / 7%60%−66 / −25
AllenLima77,5120.57% / 8%61%−44 / −16
AshlandSmall towns and rural Ohio40,4960.37% / 6%66%−50 / −23
AshtabulaCleveland75,9370.38% / 8%58%−28 / −23
AthensSmall towns and rural Ohio52,5850.36% / 6%50%+11 / −12
AuglaizeSmall towns and rural Ohio35,0990.47% / 7%73%−65 / −21
BelmontWheeling53,2120.27% / 8%59%−47 / −23
BrownCincinnati33,8620.27% / 7%64%−62 / −25
ButlerCincinnati301,1040.46% / 6%64%−26 / −12
CarrollCanton-Massillon21,2090.48% / 8%65%−55 / −26
ChampaignSmall towns and rural Ohio30,2420.28% / 7%68%−51 / −23
ClarkSpringfield104,6390.49% / 9%61%−30 / −17
ClermontCincinnati164,4590.27% / 7%70%−36 / −18
ClintonSmall towns and rural Ohio32,4820.19% / 8%65%−55 / −21
ColumbianaSmall towns and rural Ohio80,3750.38% / 8%60%−49 / −24
CoshoctonSmall towns and rural Ohio27,9960.37% / 7%59%−52 / −25
CrawfordSmall towns and rural Ohio32,6410.47% / 8%63%−53 / −24
CuyahogaCleveland990,7780.45% / 6%60%+31 / +2
DarkeSmall towns and rural Ohio39,3940.35% / 7%69%−65 / −25
DefianceSmall towns and rural Ohio29,7170.26% / 6%65%−40 / −20
DelawareColumbus170,5700.26% / 6%83%−7 / −8
ErieSandusky60,0890.28% / 8%67%−14 / −15
FairfieldColumbus124,4770.47% / 7%69%−24 / −14
FayetteSmall towns and rural Ohio22,1150.26% / 8%58%−55 / −24
FranklinColumbus1,022,9380.25% / 5%63%+28 / +0
FultonToledo32,4900.27% / 6%70%−42 / −21
GalliaSmall towns and rural Ohio22,2110.27% / 8%59%−59 / −21
GeaugaCleveland74,2960.47% / 7%74%−24 / −16
GreeneDayton-Kettering-Beavercreek134,7980.211% / 11%68%−20 / −10
GuernseySmall towns and rural Ohio29,7680.38% / 8%59%−52 / −24
HamiltonCincinnati639,8950.45% / 5%67%+15 / −0
HancockSmall towns and rural Ohio58,5630.57% / 7%66%−38 / −18
HardinSmall towns and rural Ohio23,5080.47% / 6%55%−55 / −22
HarrisonSmall towns and rural Ohio11,3050.27% / 7%63%−55 / −26
HenrySmall towns and rural Ohio21,1350.58% / 6%71%−47 / −22
HighlandSmall towns and rural Ohio33,1160.47% / 8%61%−63 / −24
HockingColumbus21,8380.28% / 8%62%−44 / −26
HolmesSmall towns and rural Ohio30,9750.33% / 4%40%−69 / −27
HuronSmall towns and rural Ohio44,5360.27% / 7%62%−44 / −23
JacksonSmall towns and rural Ohio24,8830.210% / 8%58%−58 / −25
JeffersonWeirton-Steubenville51,9910.37% / 7%60%−44 / −20
KnoxSmall towns and rural Ohio48,7560.58% / 8%67%−45 / −20
LakeCleveland187,4160.47% / 8%70%−14 / −16
LawrenceHuntington-Ashland44,5530.28% / 8%60%−51 / −23
LickingColumbus140,3320.58% / 8%69%−30 / −17
LoganSmall towns and rural Ohio35,6130.48% / 7%66%−56 / −23
LorainCleveland248,7980.47% / 8%65%−6 / −13
LucasToledo330,5090.36% / 6%59%+13 / −7
MadisonColumbus35,5630.48% / 7%59%−44 / −20
MahoningYoungstown-Warren180,5710.37% / 7%63%−9 / −12
MarionSmall towns and rural Ohio51,1560.48% / 8%54%−41 / −22
MedinaCleveland144,4440.27% / 7%75%−25 / −17
MeigsSmall towns and rural Ohio17,3870.48% / 9%60%−57 / −27
MercerSmall towns and rural Ohio31,6740.35% / 6%76%−67 / −22
MiamiDayton-Kettering-Beavercreek85,0530.47% / 7%71%−45 / −19
MonroeSmall towns and rural Ohio10,5380.38% / 9%65%−60 / −27
MontgomeryDayton-Kettering-Beavercreek417,2620.48% / 8%63%+0 / −5
MorganSmall towns and rural Ohio10,8000.58% / 9%63%−53 / −25
MorrowColumbus27,7120.28% / 8%68%−56 / −24
MuskingumSmall towns and rural Ohio66,8220.27% / 7%59%−44 / −21
NobleSmall towns and rural Ohio11,5700.29% / 11%53%−65 / −26
OttawaSandusky32,9790.18% / 8%73%−25 / −20
PauldingSmall towns and rural Ohio14,3540.28% / 6%66%−56 / −24
PerryColumbus27,2080.49% / 8%63%−55 / −25
PickawayColumbus47,1610.47% / 6%62%−49 / −21
PikeSmall towns and rural Ohio20,7000.27% / 7%59%−54 / −25
PortageAkron132,4900.26% / 7%64%−16 / −15
PrebleSmall towns and rural Ohio31,7220.58% / 7%69%−59 / −24
PutnamSmall towns and rural Ohio25,5610.25% / 6%78%−69 / −20
RichlandMansfield97,8730.58% / 8%60%−42 / −19
RossSmall towns and rural Ohio60,3940.38% / 7%55%−39 / −21
SanduskySmall towns and rural Ohio46,1000.47% / 7%65%−31 / −21
SciotoSmall towns and rural Ohio56,8920.27% / 7%55%−48 / −22
SenecaSmall towns and rural Ohio43,0420.17% / 7%59%−38 / −20
ShelbySmall towns and rural Ohio36,2050.37% / 6%70%−65 / −21
StarkCanton-Massillon293,1880.47% / 7%64%−22 / −16
SummitAkron426,5700.26% / 6%66%+7 / −9
TrumbullYoungstown-Warren159,5660.28% / 8%61%−17 / −19
TuscarawasSmall towns and rural Ohio70,9310.47% / 7%62%−43 / −23
UnionColumbus51,0760.26% / 6%76%−30 / −14
Van WertSmall towns and rural Ohio22,1950.46% / 6%67%−59 / −24
VintonSmall towns and rural Ohio10,0050.35% / 7%57%−59 / −27
WarrenCincinnati190,5370.37% / 7%77%−32 / −13
WashingtonSmall towns and rural Ohio47,2720.19% / 9%66%−44 / −22
WayneSmall towns and rural Ohio88,6520.26% / 6%61%−39 / −21
WilliamsSmall towns and rural Ohio28,6350.36% / 6%64%−48 / −24
WoodToledo105,3450.36% / 5%66%−10 / −13
WyandotSmall towns and rural Ohio16,7540.18% / 8%69%−51 / −23

Sources

Records
ACS PUMS 2020–2024 5-year, Ohio, adults 18+
Tables
ACS 2020–2024 5-year tables B01001, B01001B/D/H/I, B15001, B19001, B23025, B25008, B26001; out of sample: B21001
Geography
2020 Census tract to 2020 PUMA relationship file; tract population B01003; metro areas, OMB delineation of July 2023
Citizenship
ACS 2020–2024 5-year table B05003 (raked)
Party lean
Modelled. Priors: Cooperative Election Study 2024 common content (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/X11EP6, CC0), citizen respondents in the Census Midwest, validated 2024 vote and 7-point party ID with leaners as partisans. Calibration: 2024 county presidential returns, MIT Election Data and Science Lab (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ, CC0), presidential votes standing in for ballots cast.