Template

New Jersey by county: Census 2020–2024

Every adult in New Jersey, as the Census counts them, county by county and grouped by metro area. Each person is a real combination of traits from the Census's anonymised person records, weighted so every county matches its published tables, with party lean and 2024 turnout modelled and labelled so.

21 places, by metro area / county · Team plan

Every plan can look; creating a population from a state by county or by município needs Team.

What each person has

Age
- 18-2411%
- 25-3416%
- 35-4417%
- 45-5416%
- 55-6417%
- 65-7413%
- and 1 more
Sex
- Man49%
- Woman51%
Race and ethnicity
- White54%
- Black13%
- Hispanic20%
- Asian10%
- Other or more than one race3%
Education
- No high school diploma9%
- High school diploma or GED26%
- Some college or associate's degree24%
- Bachelor's degree25%
- Graduate degree16%
Household income
- Under $25,0008%
- $25,000–49,99910%
- $50,000–74,99911%
- $75,000–99,99911%
- $100,000–149,99919%
- $150,000 or more40%
- and 1 more
Work
- Working62%
- Unemployed, looking for work4%
- Not in the labor force34%
Home
- Lives in an owned home66%
- Lives in a rented home32%
- Lives in group quarters2%
Marital status
- Married52%
- Widowed6%
- Divorced9%
- Separated2%
- Never married32%
Children at home
- No children at home66%
- Children at home34%
Veteran
- Not a veteran96%
- Veteran4%
Born
- Born in the US71%
- Born abroad29%
Health coverage
- Has health coverage92%
- No health coverage8%
Disability
- No disability86%
- Has a disability14%
Citizenship
- US citizen88%
- Not a US citizen12%
Party lean (modelled)
- Democratic-leaning47%
- Republican-leaning34%
- Independent or no lean19%
Voted in 2024 (modelled)
- Voted58%
- Did not vote30%
- Not eligible (not a citizen)12%

County by county

Adults in each county: darker has more. Point at a county for its numbers.

50,961761,123adults, on a log scale

Error report

How close these people come to the published figures, and where they fall short.

7,306,164 adults · 359,731 Census records · 21 counties in 6 areas (metro areas and the rest of the state)

Built 2026-10-09 · records new-jersey-2024-v1

How close the people land on the Census

Each county's records are weighted until they match its American Community Survey tables. The figure is the worst county's largest gap on each table, in percentage points.

Table	Worst county
Sex by age	0.3
Race and ethnicity	0.3
Education	0.4
Household income	0.4
Work	0.1
Owned or rented home	0.2
Citizenship	0.0

A check left out of the fit: veterans

Veteran status was not used in weighting, so it shows how well the weighted people carry traits nobody fitted. Per county, the share of veterans among civilian adults lands a median 0.1 points from the Census's own figure; 95% of counties within 0.3, the worst 0.3.

What drawing a population adds

A population is a sample of these weighted people, so small counties vary from draw to draw. Largest gap per county between the people drawn and the county's records, counties with at least 30 people.

Trait	10,000 people		100,000 people
	Median	95% of counties within	Median	95% of counties within
Race and ethnicity	0.1	0.5	0.0	0.0
Education	0.7	2.2	0.1	0.3
Household income	0.3	2.2	0.0	0.2

Party lean and 2024 turnout (modelled)

No Census record says how anyone votes, so these two traits are modelled. Each person starts from what Cooperative Election Study 2024 respondents like them (race, age, education and sex, in the Census Northeast) said and did, with turnout checked against the voter file. Each county is then calibrated so its people's turnout and Democratic-minus-Republican margin match its 2024 presidential result (MIT Election Lab). Those results count votes for president, so turnout runs a point or so under ballots cast.

Check	Margin	Turnout
Each county against its 2024 result (calibrated)	median 0.0, worst 0.0	median 0.0, worst 0.0
Demographics alone, given only the statewide result	median 12.3, worst 30.8	median 2.3, worst 9.3
The same, with priors that never saw anyone from New Jersey	median 12.4, worst 30.4	median 2.4, worst 9.5

Leans against New Jersey's own survey respondents

Nothing was fitted to these: the share of each lean among New Jersey's adults, as modelled and as the CES's New Jersey respondents gave it.

	Democratic	Republican	Neither	Turnout
Model	47%	34%	19%
CES New Jersey (n=1,595)	46%	36%	18%
Priors that never saw anyone from New Jersey, applied to its 1,570 citizen respondents	52%	30%	18%	59%
CES New Jersey, citizens (n=1,570)	47%	37%	17%	58%

The county totals are right by construction: that is what calibration does. The honest test is the people alone, in the table above: given only the statewide result, how far each county's people land from its margin. Counties that vote very differently from people like them elsewhere in the region land furthest; the map shows where.

Within a county, calibration moves everyone's lean by the same factor, so lean by race inside one county is the weakest part. In the smallest counties the Census's five-year estimates carry wide margins, and where more presidential votes were cast than the estimate of citizens, turnout is held at 98%.

Use these traits to include or compare groups. They are not anyone's stated party, and results are never polls of real people.

Every county (21)

County	Area	Adults	Census gap	Veterans (Census / people)	Turnout 2024	Margin: result / demographics alone
Atlantic	Atlantic City-Hammonton	218,875	0.3	5% / 5%	64%	−3 / +2
Bergen	New York-Newark-Jersey City	761,123	0.4	3% / 3%	69%	+3 / +7
Burlington	Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington	371,679	0.3	7% / 7%	65%	+17 / +4
Camden	Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington	407,562	0.2	5% / 4%	65%	+27 / +6
Cape May	Atlantic City-Hammonton	78,667	0.2	7% / 7%	71%	−19 / −7
Cumberland	Vineland	115,902	0.3	5% / 5%	54%	−4 / −0
Essex	New York-Newark-Jersey City	659,361	0.3	3% / 3%	57%	+45 / +21
Gloucester	Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington	241,716	0.4	6% / 6%	70%	−3 / −1
Hudson	New York-Newark-Jersey City	576,329	0.3	2% / 2%	53%	+28 / +16
Hunterdon	New York-Newark-Jersey City	105,276	0.2	5% / 5%	80%	−7 / −0
Mercer	Trenton-Princeton	301,036	0.3	3% / 3%	65%	+34 / +11
Middlesex	New York-Newark-Jersey City	684,210	0.3	3% / 3%	65%	+8 / +9
Monmouth	New York-Newark-Jersey City	510,607	0.2	4% / 4%	75%	−11 / +1
Morris	New York-Newark-Jersey City	408,317	0.3	3% / 4%	76%	−3 / +4
Ocean	New York-Newark-Jersey City	490,996	0.3	6% / 6%	71%	−36 / −6
Passaic	New York-Newark-Jersey City	397,871	0.2	3% / 3%	62%	−3 / +5
Salem	Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington	50,961	0.4	6% / 6%	62%	−19 / −5
Somerset	New York-Newark-Jersey City	275,802	0.4	3% / 3%	74%	+14 / +9
Sussex	New York-Newark-Jersey City	117,388	0.2	5% / 5%	74%	−25 / −5
Union	New York-Newark-Jersey City	443,030	0.3	3% / 2%	67%	+24 / +13
Warren	Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton	89,456	0.2	5% / 5%	70%	−21 / −5

Sources

Records: ACS PUMS 2020–2024 5-year, New Jersey, adults 18+
Tables: ACS 2020–2024 5-year tables B01001, B01001B/D/H/I, B15001, B19001, B23025, B25008, B26001; out of sample: B21001
Geography: 2020 Census tract to 2020 PUMA relationship file; tract population B01003; metro areas, OMB delineation of July 2023
Citizenship: ACS 2020–2024 5-year table B05003 (raked)
Party lean: Modelled. Priors: Cooperative Election Study 2024 common content (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/X11EP6, CC0), citizen respondents in the Census Northeast, validated 2024 vote and 7-point party ID with leaners as partisans. Calibration: 2024 county presidential returns, MIT Election Data and Science Lab (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ, CC0), presidential votes standing in for ballots cast.