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Kentucky by county: Census 2020–2024

Every adult in Kentucky, as the Census counts them, county by county and grouped by metro area. Each person is a real combination of traits from the Census's anonymised person records, weighted so every county matches its published tables, with party lean and 2024 turnout modelled and labelled so.

120 places, by metro area / county · Team plan

Every plan can look; creating a population from a state by county or by município needs Team.

What each person has

Age
- 18-2412%
- 25-3417%
- 35-4416%
- 45-5416%
- 55-6417%
- 65-7414%
- and 1 more
Sex
- Man49%
- Woman51%
Race and ethnicity
- White83%
- Black7%
- Hispanic4%
- Asian2%
- Other or more than one race3%
Education
- No high school diploma11%
- High school diploma or GED34%
- Some college or associate's degree30%
- Bachelor's degree15%
- Graduate degree10%
Household income
- Under $25,00014%
- $25,000–49,99917%
- $50,000–74,99917%
- $75,000–99,99913%
- $100,000–149,99918%
- $150,000 or more17%
- and 1 more
Work
- Working57%
- Unemployed, looking for work3%
- Not in the labor force40%
Home
- Lives in an owned home69%
- Lives in a rented home28%
- Lives in group quarters3%
Marital status
- Married51%
- Widowed7%
- Divorced14%
- Separated2%
- Never married27%
Children at home
- No children at home68%
- Children at home32%
Veteran
- Not a veteran94%
- Veteran6%
Born
- Born in the US95%
- Born abroad5%
Health coverage
- Has health coverage93%
- No health coverage7%
Disability
- No disability78%
- Has a disability22%
Citizenship
- US citizen97%
- Not a US citizen3%
Party lean (modelled)
- Democratic-leaning30%
- Republican-leaning54%
- Independent or no lean17%
Voted in 2024 (modelled)
- Voted59%
- Did not vote38%
- Not eligible (not a citizen)3%

County by county

Adults in each county: darker has more. Point at a county for its numbers.

1,676608,746adults, on a log scale

Error report

How close these people come to the published figures, and where they fall short.

3,509,848 adults · 181,371 Census records · 120 counties in 10 areas (metro areas and the rest of the state)

Built 2026-10-10 · records kentucky-2024-v1

How close the people land on the Census

Each county's records are weighted until they match its American Community Survey tables. The figure is the worst county's largest gap on each table, in percentage points.

Table	Worst county
Sex by age	0.5
Race and ethnicity	0.5
Education	0.5
Household income	0.4
Work	0.2
Owned or rented home	0.3
Citizenship	0.0

A check left out of the fit: veterans

Veteran status was not used in weighting, so it shows how well the weighted people carry traits nobody fitted. Per county, the share of veterans among civilian adults lands a median 0.6 points from the Census's own figure; 95% of counties within 2.7, the worst 4.6.

What drawing a population adds

A population is a sample of these weighted people, so small counties vary from draw to draw. Largest gap per county between the people drawn and the county's records, counties with at least 30 people.

Trait	10,000 people		100,000 people
	Median	95% of counties within	Median	95% of counties within
Race and ethnicity	0.8	2.0	0.1	0.4
Education	3.0	5.9	0.6	2.1
Household income	1.8	4.6	0.3	0.8

Party lean and 2024 turnout (modelled)

No Census record says how anyone votes, so these two traits are modelled. Each person starts from what Cooperative Election Study 2024 respondents like them (race, age, education and sex, in the Census South) said and did, with turnout checked against the voter file. Each county is then calibrated so its people's turnout and Democratic-minus-Republican margin match its 2024 presidential result (MIT Election Lab). Those results count votes for president, so turnout runs a point or so under ballots cast.

Check	Margin	Turnout
Each county against its 2024 result (calibrated)	median 0.0, worst 0.0	median 0.0, worst 0.0
Demographics alone, given only the statewide result	median 21.4, worst 46.9	median 3.3, worst 12.6
The same, with priors that never saw anyone from Kentucky	median 21.0, worst 46.6	median 3.3, worst 12.5

Leans against Kentucky's own survey respondents

Nothing was fitted to these: the share of each lean among Kentucky's adults, as modelled and as the CES's Kentucky respondents gave it.

	Democratic	Republican	Neither	Turnout
Model	30%	54%	17%
CES Kentucky (n=877)	33%	54%	14%
Priors that never saw anyone from Kentucky, applied to its 870 citizen respondents	31%	51%	17%	54%
CES Kentucky, citizens (n=870)	33%	54%	14%	51%

The county totals are right by construction: that is what calibration does. The honest test is the people alone, in the table above: given only the statewide result, how far each county's people land from its margin. Counties that vote very differently from people like them elsewhere in the region land furthest; the map shows where.

Within a county, calibration moves everyone's lean by the same factor, so lean by race inside one county is the weakest part. In the smallest counties the Census's five-year estimates carry wide margins, and where more presidential votes were cast than the estimate of citizens, turnout is held at 98%.

Use these traits to include or compare groups. They are not anyone's stated party, and results are never polls of real people.

Every county (120)

County	Area	Adults	Census gap	Veterans (Census / people)	Turnout 2024	Margin: result / demographics alone
Adair	Small towns and rural Kentucky	15,328	0.2	8% / 7%	61%	−71 / −36
Allen	Bowling Green	16,379	0.1	9% / 7%	58%	−67 / −38
Anderson	Small towns and rural Kentucky	18,719	0.3	7% / 7%	71%	−49 / −37
Ballard	Paducah	6,134	0.2	6% / 7%	67%	−64 / −38
Barren	Small towns and rural Kentucky	34,208	0.2	6% / 6%	59%	−53 / −36
Bath	Small towns and rural Kentucky	9,580	0.1	3% / 6%	56%	−51 / −40
Bell	Small towns and rural Kentucky	18,371	0.3	4% / 4%	51%	−69 / −38
Boone	Cincinnati	104,078	0.4	8% / 8%	67%	−37 / −31
Bourbon	Lexington-Fayette	15,618	0.2	5% / 7%	63%	−34 / −33
Boyd	Huntington-Ashland	37,752	0.3	9% / 7%	56%	−39 / −36
Boyle	Small towns and rural Kentucky	24,474	0.4	7% / 7%	60%	−29 / −30
Bracken	Cincinnati	6,494	0.4	7% / 7%	64%	−65 / −38
Breathitt	Small towns and rural Kentucky	10,464	0.4	4% / 4%	49%	−59 / −40
Breckinridge	Small towns and rural Kentucky	16,113	0.4	9% / 9%	62%	−58 / −40
Bullitt	Louisville/Jefferson County	66,232	0.3	7% / 8%	66%	−51 / −37
Butler	Bowling Green	9,526	0.2	6% / 7%	64%	−66 / −42
Caldwell	Small towns and rural Kentucky	9,723	0.5	8% / 7%	64%	−58 / −35
Calloway	Small towns and rural Kentucky	31,252	0.3	5% / 5%	56%	−38 / −30
Campbell	Cincinnati	74,204	0.1	5% / 6%	66%	−20 / −31
Carlisle	Paducah	3,645	0.1	7% / 7%	73%	−68 / −39
Carroll	Small towns and rural Kentucky	8,036	0.3	5% / 6%	52%	−51 / −37
Carter	Huntington-Ashland	20,400	0.4	7% / 7%	57%	−58 / −40
Casey	Small towns and rural Kentucky	12,249	0.5	6% / 7%	59%	−76 / −42
Christian	Clarksville	51,648	0.1	11% / 9%	43%	−34 / −20
Clark	Lexington-Fayette	28,834	0.3	7% / 7%	62%	−35 / −35
Clay	Small towns and rural Kentucky	15,825	0.3	4% / 4%	48%	−80 / −37
Clinton	Small towns and rural Kentucky	7,228	0.2	8% / 7%	68%	−76 / −40
Crittenden	Small towns and rural Kentucky	6,899	0.4	6% / 6%	58%	−68 / −41
Cumberland	Small towns and rural Kentucky	4,636	0.2	7% / 7%	75%	−71 / −40
Daviess	Owensboro	78,267	0.4	7% / 7%	62%	−32 / −34
Edmonson	Bowling Green	10,130	0.3	7% / 7%	62%	−63 / −41
Elliott	Small towns and rural Kentucky	6,062	0.4	6% / 7%	48%	−62 / −41
Estill	Small towns and rural Kentucky	11,051	0.2	5% / 7%	58%	−63 / −42
Fayette	Lexington-Fayette	255,801	0.3	5% / 5%	61%	+18 / −19
Fleming	Small towns and rural Kentucky	11,667	0.2	6% / 7%	60%	−61 / −39
Floyd	Small towns and rural Kentucky	27,495	0.4	5% / 5%	57%	−59 / −39
Franklin	Small towns and rural Kentucky	40,978	0.4	6% / 6%	65%	−5 / −29
Fulton	Small towns and rural Kentucky	5,009	0.2	7% / 6%	43%	−40 / −28
Gallatin	Cincinnati	6,756	0.2	6% / 6%	59%	−60 / −38
Garrard	Small towns and rural Kentucky	13,777	0.3	8% / 8%	66%	−60 / −38
Grant	Cincinnati	18,683	0.2	6% / 6%	62%	−65 / −38
Graves	Small towns and rural Kentucky	27,781	0.2	6% / 6%	61%	−62 / −36
Grayson	Small towns and rural Kentucky	20,358	0.2	6% / 8%	60%	−62 / −39
Green	Small towns and rural Kentucky	8,964	0.1	8% / 8%	65%	−73 / −40
Greenup	Huntington-Ashland	27,953	0.4	7% / 7%	62%	−51 / −39
Hancock	Small towns and rural Kentucky	6,877	0.2	9% / 5%	68%	−48 / −39
Hardin	Elizabethtown	84,307	0.2	15% / 15%	58%	−29 / −26
Harlan	Small towns and rural Kentucky	19,652	0.2	6% / 5%	53%	−76 / −39
Harrison	Small towns and rural Kentucky	14,664	0.2	6% / 7%	62%	−49 / −37
Hart	Small towns and rural Kentucky	14,821	0.2	7% / 6%	57%	−60 / −39
Henderson	Small towns and rural Kentucky	34,264	0.2	6% / 5%	58%	−29 / −33
Henry	Louisville/Jefferson County	12,134	0.2	8% / 6%	68%	−52 / −39
Hickman	Small towns and rural Kentucky	3,584	0.2	5% / 7%	58%	−61 / −37
Hopkins	Small towns and rural Kentucky	34,741	0.4	5% / 6%	60%	−51 / −34
Jackson	Small towns and rural Kentucky	9,975	0.3	6% / 4%	60%	−82 / −43
Jefferson	Louisville/Jefferson County	608,746	0.5	6% / 6%	62%	+17 / −20
Jessamine	Lexington-Fayette	41,622	0.2	6% / 7%	67%	−36 / −31
Johnson	Small towns and rural Kentucky	17,368	0.4	5% / 5%	56%	−71 / −39
Kenton	Cincinnati	131,308	0.3	6% / 6%	64%	−22 / −31
Knott	Small towns and rural Kentucky	11,089	0.2	4% / 5%	54%	−59 / −38
Knox	Small towns and rural Kentucky	22,812	0.2	4% / 4%	58%	−71 / −39
Larue	Elizabethtown	11,706	0.2	7% / 9%	63%	−60 / −38
Laurel	Small towns and rural Kentucky	48,718	0.4	5% / 5%	58%	−70 / −38
Lawrence	Huntington-Ashland	12,314	0.2	5% / 6%	53%	−67 / −40
Lee	Small towns and rural Kentucky	6,009	0.2	6% / 5%	45%	−68 / −41
Leslie	Small towns and rural Kentucky	7,994	0.4	3% / 5%	55%	−81 / −41
Letcher	Small towns and rural Kentucky	16,266	0.3	6% / 5%	52%	−64 / −41
Lewis	Small towns and rural Kentucky	10,023	0.4	6% / 7%	57%	−76 / −41
Lincoln	Small towns and rural Kentucky	18,533	0.5	9% / 8%	60%	−61 / −39
Livingston	Paducah	6,940	0.2	6% / 6%	72%	−63 / −42
Logan	Small towns and rural Kentucky	21,197	0.2	7% / 7%	60%	−55 / −36
Lyon	Small towns and rural Kentucky	7,693	0.4	11% / 11%	55%	−53 / −36
McCracken	Paducah	52,831	0.3	7% / 7%	61%	−35 / −30
McCreary	Small towns and rural Kentucky	13,195	0.4	6% / 7%	47%	−79 / −38
McLean	Owensboro	7,061	0.3	6% / 6%	66%	−56 / −39
Madison	Small towns and rural Kentucky	75,624	0.2	7% / 7%	61%	−31 / −28
Magoffin	Small towns and rural Kentucky	8,803	0.3	5% / 4%	60%	−64 / −41
Marion	Small towns and rural Kentucky	15,049	0.3	7% / 8%	62%	−44 / −35
Marshall	Small towns and rural Kentucky	25,355	0.2	7% / 7%	70%	−57 / −39
Martin	Small towns and rural Kentucky	8,848	0.3	3% / 5%	42%	−84 / −37
Mason	Small towns and rural Kentucky	13,166	0.2	7% / 6%	60%	−44 / −34
Meade	Louisville/Jefferson County	23,551	0.2	12% / 9%	60%	−52 / −35
Menifee	Small towns and rural Kentucky	4,919	0.3	8% / 7%	67%	−58 / −42
Mercer	Small towns and rural Kentucky	18,011	0.3	7% / 7%	68%	−51 / −36
Metcalfe	Small towns and rural Kentucky	7,969	0.2	5% / 6%	65%	−65 / −40
Monroe	Small towns and rural Kentucky	8,516	0.2	5% / 6%	63%	−77 / −38
Montgomery	Small towns and rural Kentucky	21,802	0.2	6% / 6%	59%	−47 / −36
Morgan	Small towns and rural Kentucky	11,229	0.3	6% / 7%	48%	−64 / −36
Muhlenberg	Small towns and rural Kentucky	24,142	0.5	7% / 6%	57%	−54 / −39
Nelson	Louisville/Jefferson County	36,634	0.2	7% / 9%	64%	−42 / −34
Nicholas	Small towns and rural Kentucky	5,829	0.2	4% / 7%	57%	−49 / −40
Ohio	Small towns and rural Kentucky	18,072	0.2	5% / 5%	62%	−60 / −39
Oldham	Louisville/Jefferson County	52,122	0.2	7% / 7%	75%	−23 / −29
Owen	Small towns and rural Kentucky	8,831	0.3	7% / 6%	63%	−63 / −40
Owsley	Small towns and rural Kentucky	3,205	0.5	2% / 3%	57%	−77 / −46
Pendleton	Cincinnati	11,296	0.3	7% / 6%	61%	−64 / −40
Perry	Small towns and rural Kentucky	21,064	0.2	5% / 5%	48%	−60 / −38
Pike	Small towns and rural Kentucky	45,233	0.4	4% / 5%	53%	−65 / −38
Powell	Small towns and rural Kentucky	9,808	0.2	6% / 6%	55%	−54 / −39
Pulaski	Small towns and rural Kentucky	51,261	0.3	8% / 8%	62%	−65 / −38
Robertson	Small towns and rural Kentucky	1,676	0.3	12% / 7%	69%	−61 / −38
Rockcastle	Small towns and rural Kentucky	12,683	0.3	5% / 5%	61%	−73 / −41
Rowan	Small towns and rural Kentucky	19,757	0.2	5% / 5%	50%	−28 / −30
Russell	Small towns and rural Kentucky	14,009	0.4	6% / 7%	64%	−72 / −39
Scott	Lexington-Fayette	45,057	0.2	7% / 6%	67%	−28 / −28
Shelby	Louisville/Jefferson County	38,206	0.2	7% / 7%	68%	−35 / −32
Simpson	Small towns and rural Kentucky	15,293	0.2	8% / 6%	58%	−44 / −32
Spencer	Louisville/Jefferson County	15,643	0.4	7% / 8%	74%	−57 / −37
Taylor	Small towns and rural Kentucky	20,314	0.3	7% / 7%	61%	−57 / −33
Todd	Small towns and rural Kentucky	9,099	0.5	7% / 9%	58%	−58 / −35
Trigg	Clarksville	11,187	0.4	9% / 12%	65%	−52 / −36
Trimble	Small towns and rural Kentucky	6,738	0.2	10% / 7%	63%	−56 / −39
Union	Small towns and rural Kentucky	10,761	0.2	7% / 5%	56%	−58 / −36
Warren	Bowling Green	107,539	0.3	6% / 6%	57%	−24 / −24
Washington	Small towns and rural Kentucky	9,357	0.3	5% / 9%	68%	−50 / −36
Wayne	Small towns and rural Kentucky	15,595	0.2	6% / 7%	56%	−66 / −40
Webster	Small towns and rural Kentucky	9,758	0.2	5% / 5%	59%	−57 / −38
Whitley	Small towns and rural Kentucky	27,263	0.2	4% / 4%	56%	−69 / −35
Wolfe	Small towns and rural Kentucky	4,999	0.3	3% / 5%	59%	−51 / −42
Woodford	Lexington-Fayette	21,350	0.4	7% / 7%	74%	−14 / −32

Sources

Records: ACS PUMS 2020–2024 5-year, Kentucky, adults 18+
Tables: ACS 2020–2024 5-year tables B01001, B01001B/D/H/I, B15001, B19001, B23025, B25008, B26001; out of sample: B21001
Geography: 2020 Census tract to 2020 PUMA relationship file; tract population B01003; metro areas, OMB delineation of July 2023
Citizenship: ACS 2020–2024 5-year table B05003 (raked)
Party lean: Modelled. Priors: Cooperative Election Study 2024 common content (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/X11EP6, CC0), citizen respondents in the Census South, validated 2024 vote and 7-point party ID with leaners as partisans. Calibration: 2024 county presidential returns, MIT Election Data and Science Lab (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ, CC0), presidential votes standing in for ballots cast.