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Iowa by county: Census 2020–2024

Every adult in Iowa, as the Census counts them, county by county and grouped by metro area. Each person is a real combination of traits from the Census's anonymised person records, weighted so every county matches its published tables, with party lean and 2024 turnout modelled and labelled so.

99 places, by metro area / county · Team plan

Every plan can look; creating a population from a state by county or by município needs Team.

What each person has

County by county

Adults in each county: darker has more. Point at a county for its numbers.

Adair County: 5,754 adults (0.2%)Adams County: 2,816 adults (0.1%)Allamakee County: 10,644 adults (0.4%)Appanoose County: 9,558 adults (0.4%)Audubon County: 4,389 adults (0.2%)Benton County: 19,843 adults (0.8%)Black Hawk County: 102,305 adults (4.1%)Boone County: 21,056 adults (0.9%)Bremer County: 19,550 adults (0.8%)Buchanan County: 15,443 adults (0.6%)Buena Vista County: 15,234 adults (0.6%)Butler County: 11,075 adults (0.4%)Calhoun County: 7,673 adults (0.3%)Carroll County: 15,574 adults (0.6%)Cass County: 10,061 adults (0.4%)Cedar County: 14,474 adults (0.6%)Cerro Gordo County: 33,771 adults (1.4%)Cherokee County: 9,025 adults (0.4%)Chickasaw County: 9,064 adults (0.4%)Clarke County: 7,192 adults (0.3%)Clay County: 12,620 adults (0.5%)Clayton County: 13,333 adults (0.5%)Clinton County: 35,686 adults (1.4%)Crawford County: 12,134 adults (0.5%)Dallas County: 79,292 adults (3.2%)Davis County: 6,420 adults (0.3%)Decatur County: 6,038 adults (0.2%)Delaware County: 13,474 adults (0.5%)Des Moines County: 29,927 adults (1.2%)Dickinson County: 14,561 adults (0.6%)Dubuque County: 76,713 adults (3.1%)Emmet County: 7,496 adults (0.3%)Fayette County: 15,165 adults (0.6%)Floyd County: 11,850 adults (0.5%)Franklin County: 7,560 adults (0.3%)Fremont County: 5,123 adults (0.2%)Greene County: 6,799 adults (0.3%)Grundy County: 9,479 adults (0.4%)Guthrie County: 8,419 adults (0.3%)Hamilton County: 11,339 adults (0.5%)Hancock County: 8,428 adults (0.3%)Hardin County: 13,482 adults (0.5%)Harrison County: 11,254 adults (0.5%)Henry County: 15,826 adults (0.6%)Howard County: 7,004 adults (0.3%)Humboldt County: 7,317 adults (0.3%)Ida County: 5,231 adults (0.2%)Iowa County: 12,656 adults (0.5%)Jackson County: 15,087 adults (0.6%)Jasper County: 29,597 adults (1.2%)Jefferson County: 13,013 adults (0.5%)Johnson County: 126,363 adults (5.1%)Jones County: 16,684 adults (0.7%)Keokuk County: 7,705 adults (0.3%)Kossuth County: 11,318 adults (0.5%)Lee County: 25,904 adults (1.0%)Linn County: 178,147 adults (7.2%)Louisa County: 8,331 adults (0.3%)Lucas County: 6,667 adults (0.3%)Lyon County: 8,737 adults (0.4%)Madison County: 12,668 adults (0.5%)Mahaska County: 16,808 adults (0.7%)Marion County: 25,873 adults (1.0%)Marshall County: 29,939 adults (1.2%)Mills County: 11,242 adults (0.5%)Mitchell County: 8,053 adults (0.3%)Monona County: 6,622 adults (0.3%)Monroe County: 5,782 adults (0.2%)Montgomery County: 7,907 adults (0.3%)Muscatine County: 32,388 adults (1.3%)O'Brien County: 10,680 adults (0.4%)Osceola County: 4,717 adults (0.2%)Page County: 12,225 adults (0.5%)Palo Alto County: 6,819 adults (0.3%)Plymouth County: 19,304 adults (0.8%)Pocahontas County: 5,402 adults (0.2%)Polk County: 380,581 adults (15.4%)Pottawattamie County: 72,017 adults (2.9%)Poweshiek County: 14,952 adults (0.6%)Ringgold County: 3,603 adults (0.1%)Sac County: 7,584 adults (0.3%)Scott County: 134,197 adults (5.4%)Shelby County: 9,079 adults (0.4%)Sioux County: 26,375 adults (1.1%)Story County: 84,190 adults (3.4%)Tama County: 12,865 adults (0.5%)Taylor County: 4,538 adults (0.2%)Union County: 9,296 adults (0.4%)Van Buren County: 5,532 adults (0.2%)Wapello County: 26,930 adults (1.1%)Warren County: 41,117 adults (1.7%)Washington County: 17,028 adults (0.7%)Wayne County: 4,837 adults (0.2%)Webster County: 29,001 adults (1.2%)Winnebago County: 8,354 adults (0.3%)Winneshiek County: 16,159 adults (0.7%)Woodbury County: 78,856 adults (3.2%)Worth County: 5,830 adults (0.2%)Wright County: 9,462 adults (0.4%)
2,816380,581adults, on a log scale

Error report

How close these people come to the published figures, and where they fall short.

2,475,492 adults · 132,606 Census records · 99 counties in 10 areas (metro areas and the rest of the state)

Built 2026-10-10 · records iowa-2024-v1

How close the people land on the Census

Each county's records are weighted until they match its American Community Survey tables. The figure is the worst county's largest gap on each table, in percentage points.

TableWorst county
Sex by age0.5
Race and ethnicity0.4
Education0.5
Household income0.5
Work0.2
Owned or rented home0.3
Citizenship0.0

A check left out of the fit: veterans

Veteran status was not used in weighting, so it shows how well the weighted people carry traits nobody fitted. Per county, the share of veterans among civilian adults lands a median 0.7 points from the Census's own figure; 95% of counties within 2.4, the worst 2.7.

What drawing a population adds

A population is a sample of these weighted people, so small counties vary from draw to draw. Largest gap per county between the people drawn and the county's records, counties with at least 30 people.

Trait10,000 people100,000 people
Median95% of counties withinMedian95% of counties within
Race and ethnicity0.92.30.10.3
Education3.37.60.61.5
Household income2.14.00.30.7

Party lean and 2024 turnout (modelled)

No Census record says how anyone votes, so these two traits are modelled. Each person starts from what Cooperative Election Study 2024 respondents like them (race, age, education and sex, in the Census Midwest) said and did, with turnout checked against the voter file. Each county is then calibrated so its people's turnout and Democratic-minus-Republican margin match its 2024 presidential result (MIT Election Lab). Those results count votes for president, so turnout runs a point or so under ballots cast.

CheckMarginTurnout
Each county against its 2024 result (calibrated)median 0.0, worst 0.0median 0.0, worst 0.0
Demographics alone, given only the statewide resultmedian 19.1, worst 56.4median 2.4, worst 11.4
The same, with priors that never saw anyone from Iowamedian 19.0, worst 56.4median 2.4, worst 11.4

Leans against Iowa's own survey respondents

Nothing was fitted to these: the share of each lean among Iowa's adults, as modelled and as the CES's Iowa respondents gave it.

DemocraticRepublicanNeitherTurnout
Model37%47%15%
CES Iowa (n=611)34%49%17%
Priors that never saw anyone from Iowa, applied to its 609 citizen respondents36%47%17%60%
CES Iowa, citizens (n=609)34%49%17%66%

The county totals are right by construction: that is what calibration does. The honest test is the people alone, in the table above: given only the statewide result, how far each county's people land from its margin. Counties that vote very differently from people like them elsewhere in the region land furthest; the map shows where.

Within a county, calibration moves everyone's lean by the same factor, so lean by race inside one county is the weakest part. In the smallest counties the Census's five-year estimates carry wide margins, and where more presidential votes were cast than the estimate of citizens, turnout is held at 98%.

Use these traits to include or compare groups. They are not anyone's stated party, and results are never polls of real people.

Every county (99)
CountyAreaAdultsCensus gapVeterans (Census / people)Turnout 2024Margin: result / demographics alone
AdairSmall towns and rural Iowa5,7540.47% / 9%71%−45 / −21
AdamsSmall towns and rural Iowa2,8160.39% / 8%76%−44 / −20
AllamakeeSmall towns and rural Iowa10,6440.46% / 7%72%−34 / −21
AppanooseSmall towns and rural Iowa9,5580.510% / 8%69%−47 / −21
AudubonSmall towns and rural Iowa4,3890.28% / 9%75%−38 / −22
BentonCedar Rapids19,8430.29% / 9%73%−33 / −19
Black HawkWaterloo-Cedar Falls102,3050.46% / 6%64%+1 / −9
BooneAmes21,0560.36% / 6%73%−21 / −17
BremerWaterloo-Cedar Falls19,5500.26% / 6%75%−22 / −13
BuchananSmall towns and rural Iowa15,4430.47% / 7%70%−28 / −20
Buena VistaSmall towns and rural Iowa15,2340.44% / 5%60%−33 / −13
ButlerSmall towns and rural Iowa11,0750.27% / 7%74%−45 / −21
CalhounSmall towns and rural Iowa7,6730.36% / 8%67%−47 / −19
CarrollSmall towns and rural Iowa15,5740.26% / 7%72%−42 / −20
CassSmall towns and rural Iowa10,0610.56% / 9%72%−41 / −21
CedarSmall towns and rural Iowa14,4740.18% / 8%74%−22 / −20
Cerro GordoSmall towns and rural Iowa33,7710.38% / 7%69%−12 / −18
CherokeeSmall towns and rural Iowa9,0250.28% / 7%69%−46 / −19
ChickasawSmall towns and rural Iowa9,0640.26% / 7%71%−37 / −22
ClarkeSmall towns and rural Iowa7,1920.47% / 6%65%−42 / −20
ClaySmall towns and rural Iowa12,6200.38% / 6%69%−43 / −18
ClaytonSmall towns and rural Iowa13,3330.28% / 7%71%−34 / −24
ClintonSmall towns and rural Iowa35,6860.28% / 8%67%−19 / −18
CrawfordSmall towns and rural Iowa12,1340.27% / 6%60%−43 / −16
DallasDes Moines-West Des Moines79,2920.35% / 5%84%−5 / −7
DavisSmall towns and rural Iowa6,4200.25% / 7%62%−54 / −22
DecaturSmall towns and rural Iowa6,0380.56% / 6%63%−47 / −17
DelawareSmall towns and rural Iowa13,4740.46% / 7%76%−40 / −21
Des MoinesSmall towns and rural Iowa29,9270.18% / 7%65%−15 / −16
DickinsonSmall towns and rural Iowa14,5610.18% / 7%78%−40 / −18
DubuqueDubuque76,7130.46% / 6%71%−9 / −14
EmmetSmall towns and rural Iowa7,4960.44% / 6%65%−44 / −20
FayetteSmall towns and rural Iowa15,1650.48% / 7%66%−30 / −22
FloydSmall towns and rural Iowa11,8500.29% / 7%65%−26 / −21
FranklinSmall towns and rural Iowa7,5600.47% / 7%70%−42 / −20
FremontSmall towns and rural Iowa5,1230.18% / 8%75%−44 / −21
GreeneSmall towns and rural Iowa6,7990.48% / 7%72%−33 / −20
GrundyWaterloo-Cedar Falls9,4790.26% / 7%77%−42 / −18
GuthrieDes Moines-West Des Moines8,4190.37% / 9%79%−38 / −19
HamiltonSmall towns and rural Iowa11,3390.37% / 7%71%−33 / −18
HancockSmall towns and rural Iowa8,4280.28% / 7%72%−47 / −20
HardinSmall towns and rural Iowa13,4820.36% / 7%64%−38 / −19
HarrisonOmaha11,2540.19% / 9%71%−42 / −20
HenrySmall towns and rural Iowa15,8260.37% / 7%62%−36 / −17
HowardSmall towns and rural Iowa7,0040.27% / 6%70%−32 / −22
HumboldtSmall towns and rural Iowa7,3170.16% / 7%72%−50 / −20
IdaSmall towns and rural Iowa5,2310.57% / 7%71%−53 / −21
IowaSmall towns and rural Iowa12,6560.39% / 9%77%−28 / −19
JacksonSmall towns and rural Iowa15,0870.37% / 7%72%−32 / −22
JasperDes Moines-West Des Moines29,5970.28% / 7%70%−28 / −20
JeffersonSmall towns and rural Iowa13,0130.38% / 7%73%−7 / −12
JohnsonIowa City126,3630.44% / 4%73%+38 / −1
JonesCedar Rapids16,6840.39% / 8%67%−26 / −20
KeokukSmall towns and rural Iowa7,7050.36% / 7%67%−51 / −22
KossuthSmall towns and rural Iowa11,3180.47% / 8%76%−44 / −20
LeeSmall towns and rural Iowa25,9040.29% / 7%63%−28 / −18
LinnCedar Rapids178,1470.27% / 8%71%+10 / −12
LouisaSmall towns and rural Iowa8,3310.47% / 7%67%−41 / −20
LucasSmall towns and rural Iowa6,6670.27% / 8%71%−48 / −23
LyonSmall towns and rural Iowa8,7370.46% / 6%81%−70 / −21
MadisonDes Moines-West Des Moines12,6680.47% / 7%79%−38 / −18
MahaskaSmall towns and rural Iowa16,8080.36% / 6%66%−51 / −18
MarionSmall towns and rural Iowa25,8730.36% / 6%76%−38 / −16
MarshallSmall towns and rural Iowa29,9390.39% / 8%65%−16 / −15
MillsOmaha11,2420.39% / 9%74%−39 / −16
MitchellSmall towns and rural Iowa8,0530.29% / 7%73%−31 / −19
MononaSmall towns and rural Iowa6,6220.310% / 8%70%−45 / −21
MonroeSmall towns and rural Iowa5,7820.15% / 7%72%−51 / −20
MontgomerySmall towns and rural Iowa7,9070.27% / 7%65%−39 / −20
MuscatineSmall towns and rural Iowa32,3880.26% / 7%64%−15 / −16
O'BrienSmall towns and rural Iowa10,6800.36% / 6%73%−61 / −19
OsceolaSmall towns and rural Iowa4,7170.37% / 7%72%−64 / −22
PageSmall towns and rural Iowa12,2250.38% / 8%60%−42 / −21
Palo AltoSmall towns and rural Iowa6,8190.27% / 6%74%−45 / −19
PlymouthSmall towns and rural Iowa19,3040.17% / 7%74%−54 / −19
PocahontasSmall towns and rural Iowa5,4020.39% / 8%68%−54 / −21
PolkDes Moines-West Des Moines380,5810.26% / 6%72%+11 / −7
PottawattamieOmaha72,0170.48% / 8%64%−20 / −17
PoweshiekSmall towns and rural Iowa14,9520.47% / 9%69%−17 / −18
RinggoldSmall towns and rural Iowa3,6030.46% / 8%75%−51 / −20
SacSmall towns and rural Iowa7,5840.28% / 7%73%−51 / −20
ScottDavenport-Moline-Rock Island134,1970.28% / 7%69%−4 / −8
ShelbySmall towns and rural Iowa9,0790.29% / 9%73%−43 / −19
SiouxSmall towns and rural Iowa26,3750.34% / 5%77%−71 / −14
StoryAmes84,1900.44% / 4%63%+10 / −3
TamaSmall towns and rural Iowa12,8650.28% / 9%69%−27 / −19
TaylorSmall towns and rural Iowa4,5380.39% / 8%70%−56 / −21
UnionSmall towns and rural Iowa9,2960.38% / 7%66%−36 / −19
Van BurenSmall towns and rural Iowa5,5320.310% / 7%66%−55 / −22
WapelloSmall towns and rural Iowa26,9300.45% / 6%59%−31 / −18
WarrenDes Moines-West Des Moines41,1170.27% / 6%81%−21 / −14
WashingtonIowa City17,0280.35% / 7%70%−24 / −17
WayneSmall towns and rural Iowa4,8370.26% / 8%65%−57 / −22
WebsterSmall towns and rural Iowa29,0010.46% / 6%59%−31 / −17
WinnebagoSmall towns and rural Iowa8,3540.26% / 7%70%−31 / −17
WinneshiekSmall towns and rural Iowa16,1590.57% / 7%76%−9 / −16
WoodburySioux City78,8560.36% / 6%59%−23 / −12
WorthSmall towns and rural Iowa5,8300.39% / 7%74%−28 / −20
WrightSmall towns and rural Iowa9,4620.48% / 6%65%−36 / −18

Sources

Records
ACS PUMS 2020–2024 5-year, Iowa, adults 18+
Tables
ACS 2020–2024 5-year tables B01001, B01001B/D/H/I, B15001, B19001, B23025, B25008, B26001; out of sample: B21001
Geography
2020 Census tract to 2020 PUMA relationship file; tract population B01003; metro areas, OMB delineation of July 2023
Citizenship
ACS 2020–2024 5-year table B05003 (raked)
Party lean
Modelled. Priors: Cooperative Election Study 2024 common content (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/X11EP6, CC0), citizen respondents in the Census Midwest, validated 2024 vote and 7-point party ID with leaners as partisans. Calibration: 2024 county presidential returns, MIT Election Data and Science Lab (Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ, CC0), presidential votes standing in for ballots cast.
Iowa by county: Census 2020–2024 · Voxari Studio